中东冲突加剧，甲醇剧烈波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 69% and the Yulin region at 42% as of March 6. After the Spring Festival, coal mines resumed production, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 3 million tons. Demand has weakened, and pit - mouth prices have stopped rising and are weakly falling [3]. - The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 300 - 350 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level, with domestic supply remaining loose. The US dollar price has risen significantly. Iranian plants have restarted, and the non - Iranian operating rate has increased after the US cold wave ended, but the European and American markets fell sharply during the holidays, narrowing the domestic - foreign price difference and closing the Southeast Asian re - export window. The expected import volume in March is about 750,000 tons [3]. - The MTO plant operating rate is at a low level, with some plants shut down and some operating under - capacity. The port inventory is continuously decreasing due to reduced imports from shipping closures, while the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuates slightly [3]. - Before the intensification of the conflict, Iranian methanol plants that were shut down due to gas restrictions resumed production, with the daily output increasing from 6,000 tons to 23,000 tons and the operating rate rising to about 60%. After the intensification of the conflict, some plants in Iran shut down, and the daily output dropped to about 500 tons. The domestic market is worried about a significant reduction in future imports. If the conflict continues and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, the inventory in East and South China will decrease rapidly. The spot price of methanol in Northwest China has also risen sharply. The methanol futures have fluctuated sharply in the past two days, and the exchange has introduced regulatory policies. Currently, the fundamentals have not changed, and trading should be cautious [3]. - The trading strategies are: for single - side trading, go long at low prices but do not chase the rise; for arbitrage, focus on positive spreads; in the over - the - counter market, sell put options [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The report analyzes the raw coal situation, methanol supply and demand, inventory, and the impact of the Middle East conflict on methanol. It also provides trading strategies including single - side trading, arbitrage, and over - the - counter trading [3] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - Supply - Domestic: As of March 5, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 77.36%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points from last week but an increase of 5.72 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 87.93%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points from last week and an increase of 3.96 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 69.85%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points from last week [5]. - Supply - International: From February 28 to March 6, 2026, the international (ex - China) methanol output was 760,909 tons, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 52.16%, a decrease of 4.14%. Geopolitical conflicts led to large - scale shutdowns of plants in the Middle East, and Southeast Asian plants have not recovered this week [5]. - Supply - Import: From February 26 to March 4, 2026, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 227,900 tons, including 200,300 tons from foreign vessels and 27,600 tons from domestic vessels. Among them, Jiangsu received 15,300 tons, Guangdong 6,300 tons, and Xiamen 6,000 tons [5]. - Demand - MTO: As of March 5, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 38.95%, the same as last week. The national olefin plant operating rate was 85.37%, and the operation of domestic MTO enterprises' plants was stable, with only individual adjustments in inland enterprises' loads and no obvious change in the operating rate [5]. - Demand - Traditional: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 2.85%. The Wanlilai plant increased its load, and the Yunnan Jiehua plant started up, with the recovery volume greater than the loss volume. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 84.11%, and the overall capacity utilization rate was stable. The formaldehyde operating rate was 28.72%, with multiple domestic plants starting up and some plants increasing their loads, resulting in an increase in supply [5]. - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 101,400 tons, an increase of 80,100 tons from the previous statistical date, with a month - on - month increase of 376.06% [5]. - Inventory - Enterprise: As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 552,400 tons, an increase of 17,100 tons, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 295,200 tons, an increase of 85,500 tons from the previous period [5]. - Inventory - Port: As of March 4, 2026, the total port inventory was 1,443,500 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 24,200 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 27,400 tons [5]. - Valuation: In terms of profit, the price of chemical coal in the northwest region was stable, and the inland methanol auction price increased sharply. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 480 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi, it was 520 yuan/ton. The port - north line price difference was 480 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 140 yuan/ton. The MTO loss increased, and the basis was stable [5] 2. Spot Price - The spot price of Taicang was 2,460 yuan/ton (+270), and the north line was 1,980 yuan/ton (+170) [8]