国内外供应大幅收紧，V坚挺上涨

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Due to the sudden geopolitical conflict in the Middle East over the weekend, the supply of international crude oil and natural gas has become tight, driving up energy prices. With the increase in ethylene costs and concerns about supply shortages, the bullish sentiment in the PVC market has been rising. The cost of the ethylene method has increased by more than 380 yuan/ton this week, and the spot market price has risen steadily. The price of calcium carbide-based Type 5 PVC in East China has reached 4,800 - 5,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Next week, the scale of maintenance of PVC production enterprises will change little. Domestic demand is expected to recover, and foreign trade exports are waiting for April quotes. The supply - demand fundamentals will remain in a stalemate. Due to geopolitical impacts, the ethylene method is expected to rise. It is predicted that the PVC spot market will be weakly stalemated next week and still be affected by geopolitical conflict sentiment. There is a need to be vigilant about the pressure on the ethylene market caused by energy supply disruptions, which may lead to a reduction in the global ethylene - based supply. Overall, the ex - warehouse cash price of calcium carbide - based Type 5 PVC in East China is initially expected to be in the range of 4,800 - 5,100 yuan/ton [3]. - The trading strategy is to go long at low prices but not to chase the rise for single - side trading; to wait and see for arbitrage; and to wait and see for over - the - counter trading [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The report provides a trading strategy of going long at low prices but not chasing the rise for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for over - the - counter trading [3]. Fundamental Data - Core Data Changes - PVC production enterprise output is 49.61 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.28% (0.64 tons) and a year - on - year increase of 5.97% (2.80 tons). The PVC industry inventory sample is 191.67 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.14% and a year - on - year increase of 36.37%. The inventory of all sample production enterprises is 51.29 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.59% and a year - on - year increase of 1.96%. The PVC social inventory is 140.38 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.76% and a year - on - year increase of 62.29% [4]. - This week, Jiyuan Fangsheng and Yantai Wanhua had maintenance, and some enterprises adjusted their loads. Hangjin stopped production in March. The loss of production due to maintenance and production reduction this week is 11.51 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.90% and a year - on - year increase of 3.91%. The production capacity of maintenance enterprises in March is 3.14 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 50.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.12% [4]. - The average weekly trading volume in the PVC market this week is 1.47 tons, with an increase of 0.7 tons compared to before the holiday and a decrease of 0.3 tons compared to the same period last year [4]. - The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week is 35.84%, with a month - on - month increase of 18.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.61%. The profile operating rate is 27.39%, with a month - on - month increase of 16.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%. The pipe operating rate is 33%, with a month - on - month increase of 19.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.88% [4]. - The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises this period have increased by 1.4 days to 14 days. Upstream and the market have delivered goods to the terminal after the holiday, and product enterprises have made appropriate low - price purchases [4]. - The sample export order volume of PVC production enterprises this week has increased by 27.6% to 2.45 tons compared to the previous period, with a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The delivery volume has decreased by 22% to 4.2 tons (enterprises have concentrated on delivering exports this week), and the undelivered volume has decreased by 7.71% to 20.96 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 60.79%. Affected by shipping space, rising freight rates, and the Middle East situation, the March delivery price of PVC has stabilized, with the FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC at 635 - 640 US dollars/ton and that of ethylene - based PVC at 655 - 670 US dollars/ton [4]. - PVC Supply Analysis - Enterprise Output by Process: Not provided in the given content - Enterprise Output by Region: Not provided in the given content - Enterprise Pre - sales by Process: Not provided in the given content - Enterprise Capacity Utilization by Process: Not provided in the given content - Raw Material Source Weekly Operating Data: Not provided in the given content - Maintenance Enterprise Statistics: Many enterprises have maintenance plans in March and April, including Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, etc. Some are cost - based maintenance, and some are regular maintenance. There are also foreign enterprises with maintenance plans, such as Japan's Taiyo Ethylene, Formosa Plastics USA, etc. [19]. - Production Enterprise Production Increase Plan: Many enterprises have production increase plans, including Zhejiang Jiajiaxingcheng New Materials, Andao in Guangxi, etc. The production increase plans involve both calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, and the planned production times vary [20]. - PVC Cost Analysis - Raw Material Cost Comparison over the Years: Not provided in the given content - Raw Material Gross Margin Comparison over the Years: Not provided in the given content - PVC Supply Analysis - Production Enterprise Inventory by Process/Region: Not provided in the given content - PVC Demand Analysis - Product Enterprise Operating Rate and Inventory - The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week is 35.84%, with a month - on - month increase of 18.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.61%. The profile operating rate is 27.39%, with a month - on - month increase of 16.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%. The pipe operating rate is 33%, with a month - on - month increase of 19.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.88% [4]. - The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises this period have increased by 1.4 days to 14 days [4].