鸡蛋周报：进入需求淡季，蛋价表现偏弱-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market has entered a seasonal off - peak period. Although there was a small - scale replenishment before the start of school, the overall boost was limited. After the replenishment, the market entered a downturn again, and the terminal inventory was not cleared. The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly in March [5][13]. - Considering that the egg consumption off - peak season begins after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall capacity reduction has weakened recently due to the relatively good egg price performance. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.92 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.02 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.72 yuan per catty from last Friday. The national egg market price declined weakly this week. The egg market has entered a seasonal off - peak period, and the overall boost from pre - school replenishment was limited. After the replenishment, the market entered a downturn again, and the terminal inventory was not cleared. The supply increased in February as the amount of culled chickens was not large. In the second half of the week, the low price in the Hebei powder egg producing area stimulated some traders' bottom - fishing sentiment, and the egg price rebounded slightly. In the short term, the egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly in March [5]. - The price of old hens adjusted weakly after falling from a high. At the beginning of the week, when the egg price was high, there was an obvious sentiment of reluctance to cull chickens in the market. As the egg price fell, the mentality of farmers changed. Some farmers' risk - aversion psychology increased, and the willingness to cull chickens increased slightly, while some farmers chose to extend the raising period and wait and see. The price of old hens first fell and then stabilized. Downstream slaughter enterprises mostly purchased according to demand, and as the end of the year approached, some slaughterhouses planned to stop work one after another, and the market demand support was average. Overall, the supply and demand of the old hen market were relatively stable, and the price operated weakly in the fluctuations of the egg price and the pre - festival supply - demand adjustment [5]. 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - At the beginning of this week, due to the superposition of school - opening stockpiling and terminal market centralized replenishment, the demand recovered, and the shipping situation in the producing areas improved significantly compared with the previous period. However, as the stockpiling cycle ended and the egg price fell, the market's cautious psychology intensified, resulting in a decrease in the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, and the overall trading atmosphere became lighter. Near the weekend, as the egg price further declined, there was a certain willingness to replenish at low prices in each link, and the participation enthusiasm was acceptable, which also led to a slight increase in the shipping volume in some producing areas. However, farmers generally had a sentiment of reluctance to sell at low prices, and the enthusiasm for shipping was not high, resulting in a limited increase in the shipping volume in most producing areas. Overall, the shipping volume first increased and then decreased this week. According to Zhuochuang data, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas across the country in the week of March 5 was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. According to the monitoring and statistics of the culling age of culled chickens in key producing areas across the country by Zhuochuang Information, the average culling age of culled chickens in the week of March 5 was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [10]. - According to Zhuochuang data, the inventory of laying hens in production in the country in February was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a 3.4% year - on - year increase, higher than the previous expectation. The monthly output of laying hen chicks of the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in February (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a 5% year - on - year decrease [10]. 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - The feed cost increased this week. As of March 5, the corn price was around 2413 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price was currently 3126 yuan per ton, and the current comprehensive feed cost was about 2627 yuan per ton, which was equivalent to about 2.89 yuan per catty of eggs in terms of feed cost. - The corn price increased and the soybean meal price decreased this week, and the cost per catty of eggs increased slightly month - on - month. The national egg market price declined weakly this week. The egg market has entered a seasonal off - peak period, and the overall boost from pre - school replenishment was limited. After the replenishment, the market entered a downturn again, and the terminal inventory was not cleared. The supply increased in February as the amount of culled chickens was not large. In the second half of the week, the low price in the Hebei powder egg producing area stimulated some traders' bottom - fishing sentiment, and the egg price rebounded slightly. Overall, the average egg price decreased this week, so the profit per catty of eggs also decreased. According to Zhuochuang data, as of May 5, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.29 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.06 yuan per catty from the previous week; on February 27, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.85 yuan per feather, a decrease of 1.27 yuan per catty from the previous week [13]. 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - At the beginning of the week, the school - opening stockpiling had a strong boost, the market trading was good, and the market sales volume increased. After the stockpiling ended, the egg price weakened again, especially the powder eggs weakened more significantly, the large - sized eggs were滞销 to some extent, and the sales volume in the selling areas decreased. At the end of the week, there was no obvious positive boost in the market, and the wait - and - see sentiment in each link was strong. Traders mainly cleared their goods actively. Overall, the demand recovered slowly after the Spring Festival, and the sales volume in the selling areas increased significantly. According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of February 6, the egg sales volume in the national representative selling areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, which was at a medium - high level in the same period over the years [16]. - Due to the large inventory accumulated by farmers during the Spring Festival, as the school - opening stockpiling improved the sales situation, most farmers sold their goods along with the trend. At the end of the week, as the egg price weakened again and the farming losses increased, the sentiment of reluctance to sell appeared, and the sales rhythm began to slow down. Overall, the inventory in the production link decreased month - on - month this week. Similarly, at the beginning of the week, as the school - opening stockpiling was approaching, the stockpiling volume of canteens and group meals increased, and most traders sold their goods along with the trend. After the egg price weakened, the terminal demand decreased, and traders were cautious about purchasing due to concerns about the risk of price drops in the future, and mostly purchased according to sales. Overall, the inventory in the circulation link fluctuated little this week. According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of March 5, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week. The weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [16]. - The vegetable price index rebounded slightly this week. On March 4, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 106.05. The pork price rebounded slightly. As of February 28, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.78 yuan per kilogram, with little change from the previous week [16]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The previous profit situation was relatively good, and the market's enthusiasm for culling chickens decreased, which slowed down the overall capacity reduction. In terms of culled chickens, according to Zhuochuang data, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas across the country in the week of March 5 was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. According to the monitoring and statistics of the culling age of culled chickens in key producing areas across the country by Zhuochuang Information, the average culling age of culled chickens in the week of March 5 was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. Considering that the egg consumption off - peak season begins after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall capacity reduction has weakened recently due to the relatively good egg price performance. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [17]. - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [17]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [17]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Laying Hen Farming Situation - No specific data analysis content is provided in the given text, only the topics of culling age of chickens and the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas are mentioned [21] 3.2.2 Spread and Basis - The text provides the basis data of January, May, and September contracts, as well as the spread data of 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 contracts from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is made [24][25][28]