白糖周报：印度增产不及预期，国内糖价坚挺-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are likely to oscillate within a range. Zhengzhou sugar's short - term trend may be slightly stronger with oscillations, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the short - term, sell put options [3][4]. - The increase in sugar production in India and Thailand this season is likely to be less than the previous market expectations. The global sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season has been lowered, and most global institutions are recently lowering the global sugar production forecast for the 2026/27 season, which supports international sugar prices. However, considering the start of the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season in April and May, there will be greater supply pressure in the market, so international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - In the domestic market, the domestic sugar is currently in the peak crushing period, and the domestic sugar production this season is likely to increase significantly, so there is some pressure on the supply side. However, considering the current low sugar prices and the possible further tightening of import - end policies in the future, the sugar price is expected to be intertwined with long and short factors, with a general trend of bottom - end oscillation. But considering the recent sharp increase in crude oil prices, the domestic sugar price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices are likely to oscillate within a range. Zhengzhou sugar's short - term trend may be slightly stronger with oscillations, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell put options in the short - term [4]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - Lowered Production Expectations - The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar market surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast [8]. - Czarnikow predicts that the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season will be 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 700,000 tons from the previous estimate; the global sugar production will be 184.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous estimate. The production in India is expected to decrease from 32.8 million tons to 30.2 million tons [8]. - Green Pool predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus for the second consecutive year in the 2026/27 season, and the surplus will drop to 156,000 tons, mainly due to the decline in sugar production [8]. - Datagro predicts that there will be a supply gap of 800,000 tons in the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season, and the supply gap will further widen to 2.68 million tons in the 2026/27 season [8]. - Brazilian Sugar - Crushing Season - End of the Crushing Season: In the second half of January, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 609,000 tons, an increase of 370,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 154.39%. The sugar production was 5,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 36.31% [9]. - Lower - than - Expected Increase in Production: As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 601.644 million tons, a decrease of 13.286 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.16%. The cumulative sugar production was 40.24 million tons, an increase of 341,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The increase in sugar production this season may only be 300,000 - 400,000 tons, less than the previously expected increase of 1 million tons [12]. - Ethanol Production and Sales: The current ethanol - to - sugar price is about 17.2 cents per pound, and the alcohol - to - gasoline price ratio in the São Paulo region is about 0.724. The ethanol - to - sugar price is significantly higher than the current spot raw - sugar price, so the sugar - making ratio in the new sugar - crushing season starting in April in Brazil is likely to be low. The sugar - making ratio this season is 50.6%. A one - point decrease in the sugar - making ratio will reduce sugar production by 900,000 tons [17]. - Inventory and Exports: Brazil exported 2.2297 million tons of sugar in February, a year - on - year increase of 22%. The average daily export volume was 123,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36%. As of February in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar export was 32.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. As of the end of January, the inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.7058 million tons, a decrease of 1.3149 million tons compared to the previous half - month report, and an increase of 462,000 tons compared to the same period last year, which is slightly lower than the same period in recent years [22]. - Thailand's New Sugar - Crushing Season - The 2025/26 sugar - crushing season's sugar production is expected to be 11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 960,000 tons). As of December 2025, the cumulative sugar export was 5.5491 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The export volume has decreased significantly in recent months and has been at a low level compared to the same period in previous years since October. As of February 15, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 63.4728 million tons, a decrease of 4.4602 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 6.57%. The sugar production was 6.8356 million tons, a decrease of 346,700 tons compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 4.83%. Green Pool predicts that Thailand's sugar production may decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons in the 2026/27 season [25]. - India's Sugar - Crushing Season - The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will be 32.4 million tons. After deducting 3.1 million tons for ethanol production, the net sugar production will be 29.3 million tons, an increase of about 12% compared to the previous season [27]. - As of February 28, 2026, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season in India reached 24.63 million tons, an increase of 2.65 million tons compared to the same period last year, with an increase of 12.06%. The net export volume in December was 57,200 tons, which is at the lowest level compared to the same period in recent years. The Indian Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota in March 2026 is 2.25 million tons, the same as in February and a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year [29]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Domestic Sugar Production - Guangxi: As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Guangxi was 33.4306 million tons, a decrease of 3.0971 million tons compared to the same period last year; the production of mixed sugar was 4.029 million tons, a decrease of 788,000 tons compared to the same period last year; the mixed sugar - making rate was 12.05%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In January, the single - month sugar production was 2.0871 million tons, an increase of 21,500 tons compared to the same period last year [35]. - Yunnan: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Yunnan was 8.1447 million tons (compared to 6.7824 million tons in the same period of the previous season), the sugar production was 984,100 tons (compared to 837,100 tons in the same period of the previous season), and the sugar - making rate was 12.08% (compared to 12.34% in the same period of the previous season). In January, the single - month sugar production was 591,800 tons (compared to 510,200 tons in the same period last year) [35]. - Domestic Sugar Sales and Inventory - Guangxi: As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.5506 million tons, a decrease of 830,300 tons compared to the same period last year; the sales - to - production ratio was 38.49%, a decrease of 10.94 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In January, the single - month sugar sales were 665,800 tons, a decrease of 82,900 tons compared to the same period last year; the industrial inventory was 2.4784 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons compared to the same period last year [38]. - Yunnan: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative sales of new sugar in Yunnan were 532,000 tons (compared to 452,200 tons in the same period last year), the sales - to - production ratio was 54.06% (compared to 54.03% in the same period last year). In January, the single - month sugar sales were 250,600 tons (compared to 185,100 tons in the same period last year), and the industrial inventory was 452,100 tons (compared to 384,800 tons in the same period last year) [38]. - Sugar Imports - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 188,500 tons compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative sugar import was 4.9188 million tons, an increase of 562,200 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar import was 1.7635 million tons, an increase of 301,700 tons compared to the same period last year [43]. - In December 2025, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a decrease of 120,800 tons compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 1.1888 million tons, a decrease of 1.1879 million tons compared to the same period last year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 299,600 tons, a decrease of 339,500 tons compared to the same period last year [43]. - Import Profits - The out - of - quota cost of Brazilian sugar is 4,850 yuan, with a profit of 650 yuan; the out - of - quota cost of Thai sugar is 4,750 yuan, with a profit of over 750 yuan. However, due to the fact that the 2026 sugar import license has not been issued, the sugar import volume is low [46].