供应扰动仍存，矿价震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices rebounded from the bottom. There are renewed expectations of supply disruptions at the mine end, and market sentiment has improved. Due to the increased geopolitical conflict, the global commodity supply is significantly disrupted. However, the impact on the domestic iron ore supply is relatively small as Iran exported nearly 20 million tons of iron ore in 2025, with less than 6 million tons exported to China. On the fundamental side, mainstream mines at the supply end continue to contribute significant increments, and the pattern of loose supply of imported iron ore persists. On the demand side, since the second half of last year, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic fixed - asset investment has been continuously negative, and there may be a reduction in steel consumption in the first half of this year. Therefore, there is no expected increase in domestic terminal steel demand. With the intensification of geopolitical conflicts, the increase in domestic steel exports may decline, leading to a possible reduction in domestic hot metal production. Overall, current supply disruptions at the mine end have a significant impact on prices, and iron ore prices are at a stage - low. Supply disruptions have a certain impact on market sentiment, and it is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate. The trading strategy suggests a fluctuating trend for single - sided trading, and staying on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Logic Analysis: The increase in geopolitical conflicts disrupts the global commodity supply, but the impact on domestic iron ore supply is small. The supply of imported iron ore is loose, while domestic terminal steel demand has no incremental expectations, and domestic hot metal production may decrease. Supply disruptions affect prices and market sentiment, leading to an expected fluctuating trend in iron ore prices [4]. - Trading Strategy: Single - sided trading is expected to fluctuate; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [4]. 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Global Iron Ore Shipment - The weekly average of global iron ore shipments since 2026 is 30.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12% or 29 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments are 17.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% or 13 million tons, and Brazil's weekly shipments are 6.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% or 2.8 million tons. Mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil have seen significant year - on - year increases in shipments, and it is expected that the high - increment trend will continue in the first half of the year [7]. 3.2.2 Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment - The weekly average of non - Australia and non - Brazil iron ore shipments since 2026 is 6.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29% or 13 million tons. Australia's non - mainstream weekly shipments average 2.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% or 1.4 million tons, while Brazil's non - mainstream shipments average 1.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1% or 0.1 million tons. Geopolitical conflicts may lead to a significant reduction in the increment of global seaborne iron ore, with the reduction mainly coming from non - Australia and non - Brazil regions (excluding Simandou) [9]. 3.2.3 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased slightly, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, and the total domestic imported iron ore inventory decreased slightly. The current port inventory of imported iron ore is at the highest level in the past six years, and the pattern of loose supply and demand of domestic iron ore continues. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the port inventory of imported iron ore has continued to increase, while terminal steel demand remains low, and the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore have changed significantly [11]. 3.2.4 Domestic Terminal Manufacturing Steel Demand - In December 2025, the year - on - year decline in real estate new construction was 19%, and the year - on - year decline in sales area was 17%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment decreased by 11% year - on - year. Real estate has improved marginally but remains at a low level, while the decline in infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates is relatively large. Since 2026, domestic hot metal production has increased by 1% or 1.5 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production has decreased by 0.5% or 1 million tons year - on - year. Building material demand has decreased by 0.5% or 0.3 million tons year - on - year, non - building material demand has increased by 0.6% or 0.6 million tons year - on - year, and domestic crude steel consumption is basically flat year - on - year. It is expected that the weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals will continue, and the high valuation of iron ore is unlikely to be sustained. Overseas, in 2025, overseas iron ore consumption decreased by 1% or 9 million tons year - on - year, but overseas iron element consumption increased by 3.5% or 37 million tons year - on - year, with India's crude steel production increasing by 10% or 15.5 million tons year - on - year [13]. 3.3 Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 Imported Iron Ore Port Price - The report presents the price trends of the Platts iron ore price index, Qingdao Port PB powder, Qingdao Port Carajás fines, and the spread between high, medium, and low - grade powder, as well as the relationship between steel mill cash profit and the spread [19]. 3.3.2 Imported Iron Ore Port Profit - It shows the import profit trends of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special fines, Jinbuba, PB lump, and FMG [21]. 3.3.3 East China Mainstream Steel Mill Profit - The report displays the cash profit trends of East China rebar, East China hot - rolled coil, and relevant cost data such as East China hot metal cost (excluding tax), East China hot - rolled coil cash cost, East China billet cost (excluding tax), and East China rebar cash cost [23]. 3.3.4 Domestic and Foreign US Dollar Spread - It presents the spread between SGX and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the difference between East China hot metal and recycled steel (excluding tax) [25]. 3.3.5 Iron Ore Main Contract Basis and Inter - period Spread - The report shows the basis of the optimal delivery product against the 01, 05, and 09 contracts, as well as the 9/1, 1/5, and 5/9 spreads [27]. 3.3.6 Global Four Major Mines' Shipment - It presents the global shipment trends of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports [29]. 3.3.7 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - It shows the inventory trends of powder, lump, pellet, non - trade, iron concentrate, and non - Australia and non - Brazil iron ore at ports [31].