政策限价，尿素震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the guidance price suppressed the spot market, which showed mediocre performance. This week, demand weakened, and urea prices declined weakly [5]. - The ex - factory prices in mainstream areas have been firm since the weekend, with stable market sentiment and average trading volume. Urea enterprises have received few orders [5]. - The daily output of urea has rebounded to around 223,000 tons, reaching a new historical high. The international market price is firm, and India has tendered for another 1.5 million tons, with an expected price of no less than $500 per ton. However, there are no new quotas in China, so the overall impact is limited [5]. - After the Spring Festival, the operating rates of compound fertilizer plants in the Central and Northeast regions have gradually increased, but their raw material inventories are high, and procurement has basically stagnated [5]. - Urea enterprises' inventories started a narrow - range destocking mode this week after a significant inventory build - up during the Spring Festival. On March 4, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0981 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons from the previous period, a 6.62% month - on - month decrease [5]. - Mainstream urea enterprises in key regions raised their ex - factory prices to the association's guidance price over the weekend, up 30 yuan per ton from last Friday. However, the guidance prices from April to June are the same as in March, indicating that domestic policies still suppress urea prices [5]. - As agricultural top - dressing ends and industrial demand is tepid, manufacturers' order receipts have declined significantly, and the market atmosphere has weakened rapidly. In the short term, futures should be treated with a bearish mindset [5]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, short from high levels without chasing the short; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for over - the - counter trading, stay on the sidelines [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Overview: The domestic gas - fired urea plants that were under maintenance have resumed production, and the daily output has increased. The international market price is strong, but the impact on China is limited due to the lack of new quotas. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has increased, but procurement has stagnated. Urea enterprises' inventories have started to decline slightly. Policy still suppresses prices, and the market atmosphere has weakened. The trading strategy is to short from high levels on the single - side, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [5] - Core Data Changes - Supply: In the 9th week of 2026 (February 26 - March 4), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 97.92%, a 0.10% month - on - month increase; that of gas - based urea was 76.60%, a 0.31% month - on - month increase. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate of urea was 99.93%, a 0.18% month - on - month decrease [6] - Demand: In the 10th week of 2026 (February 27 - March 5), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.54%, an 8.26 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 37.02%, a 3.61 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. As of March 6, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,960 tons, a 47.37% month - on - month increase. The arrival volume of urea in the Northeast this week was 85,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous week. As of March 4, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.71 days, a 0.59 - day increase from the previous period, an 8.29% month - on - month increase [6] - Inventory: On March 4, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0981 million tons, a 6.62% month - on - month decrease. As of March 5, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 190,000 tons, a 9.20% month - on - month increase [6] - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was stable, the price of Yulin pulverized coal was weak, and the spot price of urea was firm. The production profit of urea was stable, with a fixed - bed production profit of 150 yuan per ton, a coal - water slurry production profit of 240 yuan per ton, and a gas - fluidized bed production profit of 460 yuan per ton. The futures were volatile, the basis was near parity, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 13 yuan per ton [6] 3.2 Other Data Tracking (Directory Items without Specific Content in the Given Text) - Mainstream manufacturers' ex - factory prices [9] - Basis [16] - Regional spread [23] - Warehouse receipts and spread [27] - Urea - methanol futures spread [31] - Raw coal price [35] - Production profit [38] - Urea/liquid ammonia and synthetic ammonia spread [42] - Urea operating rate [47] - Urea output [54] - Urea pre - sales [61] - Urea inventory [65] - Other inventory supply and demand [72] - Compound fertilizer [82][89][92] - Melamine [98] - Urea export [105] - Furniture [111]