国投期货黑色金属日报-20260306

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆★ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has improved, and the furnace material prices have shown relatively strong performance. The short - term disk is expected to continue the volatile and upward trend. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Iranian situation and the quality of demand in the peak season [1]. - The iron ore disk is expected to be mainly volatile. Attention should be paid to the policy signals and the overall market sentiment around important meetings [2]. - The coke price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall due to concerns about energy caused by geopolitical conflicts. Attention should be paid to relevant news about geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The coking coal price is also likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall due to energy concerns from geopolitical conflicts. The high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance data suppresses the disk. Attention should be paid to relevant news about geopolitical conflicts [5]. - The silicon manganese price is likely to be mainly in a strong and volatile state. Attention should be paid to relevant news about international conflicts [6]. - The ferrosilicon price is likely to be mainly in a strong and volatile state. Attention should be paid to relevant news about international conflicts [7]. Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel market has rebounded. The apparent demand for thread has continued to recover slowly, production has increased, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both declined, and inventory has continued to accumulate with relatively high pressure. Iron - water production has dropped significantly, and the overall resumption of blast - furnace production is slow. Domestic demand is still weak, while steel exports remain high [1]. Iron Ore - The global shipping volume is at a high level, and domestic port inventory is increasing. Terminal demand has improved after the festival, but the resumption of steel - mill production has been affected, and iron - water production has declined significantly. There is an expectation of marginal improvement in the future. Geopolitical conflicts support costs. The disk is expected to be volatile [2]. Coke - The first round of price cuts has been fully implemented. Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly increased. Traders' purchasing willingness is average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream iron - water is at a low level. The disk is at a premium, and the price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall due to energy concerns [3]. Coking Coal - The price has risen. Geopolitical conflicts have caused concerns about the supply of chemical raw materials. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level. Coal - mine resumption is good, and production has reached a relatively high level. Spot auction transactions have decreased, and the price has slightly dropped. Terminal inventory has continued to decline. The disk is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall due to energy concerns [5]. Silicon Manganese - The price has shown a strong and volatile trend. International conflicts have a positive impact on the cost of silicon manganese through affecting manganese - ore shipping costs. Manganese - ore inventory at ports is increasing, and production is slowly rising. The price is likely to be mainly in a strong and volatile state [6]. Ferrosilicon - The price has shown a strong and volatile trend. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia has increased, and the price of semi - coke has slightly decreased. The main production areas are still in a loss state. Iron - water production is at a low level, and export demand is above 30,000 tons. Metal - magnesium production has increased. Supply has changed little, and inventory has slightly decreased. The price is likely to be mainly in a strong and volatile state [7]