焦煤日报：宏观助力焦煤上行-20260306

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the coking coal market opened higher and rose during the day. Although the international Middle - East geopolitical conflict and strong expectations of domestic Two Sessions policies have jointly pushed up coking coal prices, the fundamental situation is weak. The domestic mines are gradually resuming work, with a significant 20% increase in the operating load this period. After the holiday, the coking coal mine inventory increased by 286,000 tons, while independent coking enterprises and steel mills continued to reduce their inventories. The steel mill operating load has dropped, and the post - holiday resumption of production has fallen short of expectations. The first round of coke price cuts started on Monday and is expected to be implemented on Friday. Caution is advised regarding potential market pullbacks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Coking coal opened higher and rose during the day. The domestic mines are in the process of resuming work, with a 20% increase in the operating load. After the holiday, the coking coal mine inventory increased by 286,000 tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory decreased by about 494,100 tons, and steel mills' inventory decreased by 168,200 tons. The steel mill operating rate is 77.71%, and the post - holiday resumption of production is less than expected. The first round of coke price cuts started on Monday and is expected to be implemented on Friday. The international Middle - East geopolitical conflict and strong expectations of domestic Two Sessions policies have jointly pushed up coking coal prices, but caution is needed for potential market pullbacks [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 coking raw coal is 1,021 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is reported at 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract is 1,123 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 127 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply Data: From February 27th to March 5th, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 82.32%, a month - on - month increase of 14.08 percentage points. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 744,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 98,800 tons [4]. - Demand Data: From March 1st to March 5th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 639,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,000 tons. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 470,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2,275,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 569,000 tons [5].