苹果周报：基本面表现较强，果价走势偏强-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Apple's fundamentals are strong. The current cold - storage apple inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. As of February 27, 2026, the cold - storage apple inventory in the main producing areas of the country was 5.5292 million tons, a decrease of 190,800 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 181,100 tons, a decline of 3.2%. This inventory level is only higher than that of the 2018/19 fruit season, being the second - lowest in recent years [16]. - Although the apple price is relatively high this fruit season, the pre - Spring Festival sales and delivery situation was acceptable. After the Spring Festival, March and April are the relative off - seasons for other fruits to be on the market, and the recent apple sales situation has improved, with the inventory reduction speed accelerating compared to the previous week [16]. - As March enters the delivery month, the market has once again focused on whether cold - storage apples can meet the delivery requirements and the cost of making warehouse receipts. The fundamentals of the May apple contract are indeed strong, but the price of the May contract has increased significantly today, and there may be some profit - taking positions being closed, so caution is needed when chasing high prices [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Analysis - Apple producing areas have different sales situations, with the overall sales atmosphere remaining stronger in the west and weaker in the east. In the western region, merchants are actively seeking high - quality goods. In the Gansu producing area, the price of high - quality goods has increased, and some merchants have turned to Qingyang, Gansu and Shaanxi to look for high - quality goods. The sales of general and lower - quality common apples from fruit farmers are average, and merchants have low enthusiasm for purchasing such goods. In the Shandong producing area, the overall sales are average, some merchants are bargaining for goods, and the overall transactions are still mainly low - priced goods [6]. - In the sales areas, the overall post - festival market sales are stable. The post - festival market arrival volume is low, and the sales have begun to slow down [6]. - Main producing area prices: In the Shandong producing area, the number of merchants inspecting cold - storage apples in the Qixia area is acceptable. Merchants replenish their supplies as needed, and the transactions after some customers inquire about prices are average. In the Qixia area, the replenishment is mainly general common goods, and there are a small number of high - quality goods transactions, with limited overall transactions. Some fruit farmers are willing to lower prices. In the Penglai area, the transactions are mainly third - grade goods, and some merchants are looking for high - quality goods to supplement the market. In the Shaanxi producing area, the number of merchants has increased, and some merchants have transferred from the Gansu producing area to Shaanxi to look for high - quality goods. The price of high - quality goods in the Yan'an area is slightly firm, but the overall transactions are still average. The transactions of general common apples from fruit farmers are not fast, and merchants have low enthusiasm for seeking common goods [6]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - Inventory monitoring: As of March 5, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 35.73%, 2.29 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From February 26 to March 4, 2026, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.82 percentage points, and the inventory reduction rate was 36.05%. After the Spring Festival, the delivery was mainly concentrated in the northwest producing area, and the sales in the Shandong producing area were stable. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 40.97%, and the cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.51 percentage points this week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 31.78%, and the cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.98 percentage points this week. In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 29.84%, and the cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.85 percentage points this week [11]. - Steel Union data: As of March 4, 2026, the cold - storage apple inventory in the main producing areas of the country was 5.2753 million tons, a decrease of 253,900 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory reduction was accelerating compared to the previous week [11]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of early - morning arrival vehicles has slightly increased compared to the first week after the Spring Festival, with an average of about 18.4 vehicles per day during the week. The market prices of Shandong 80 late - Fuji apples are 3.8 - 4 yuan per catty in baskets and 4.5 - 5.5 yuan per catty in boxes, and the actual transactions are priced according to quality. The prices of Luochuan late - Fuji apples are 4.0 - 5.5 yuan per catty for 70 and above in baskets, and the prices of Jingning late - Fuji apples are 5.8 - 7.5 yuan per catty for 70 and above in boxes. Currently, the number of arrival vehicles in the market is not large, the backlog in the market transfer warehouse is not serious, the willingness of second - and third - level wholesalers to purchase is not high, the market is relatively quiet, and the selling prices are chaotic [14]. - Substitute prices: According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on February 5, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 8.04 yuan per kilogram, slightly higher than last Friday, and at a high level compared to the same period in recent years [14]. - Profit situation: In the 2025 - 2026 production season, the profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples was about 0.3 yuan per ton, the same as last week [14]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: Apple's fundamentals are strong, but the price of the May contract has increased significantly, and there may be some profit - taking positions being closed, so caution is needed when chasing high prices [16]. - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [16]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16].