基层售粮加速，玉米或阶段回调，现货卖压累积，生猪近弱远强，养殖淘鸡放缓，蛋价低位运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In February 2026, corn futures rose strongly; live hog futures showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; egg futures fluctuated weakly within a range. The spot prices of corn increased, live hogs continued to decline, and eggs fluctuated weakly [8][9]. - For corn, the short - term supply - demand mismatch drives the spot to be strong, but the futures may follow the spot after the market opens. In the long - term, the pricing logic of substitution + planting cost remains, and policy orientation should be focused on. For live hogs, the short - term supply exceeds demand, the medium - term supply pressure may ease, and the long - term supply reduction may be less than expected. For eggs, the short - to - medium - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and the long - term price increase may be limited by the expansion of the breeding scale [14][38][59]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Period Review - Spot Review: In February, the corn spot price continued to rise, the live hog spot price continued to decline, and the egg spot price fluctuated weakly. For example, on February 28, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port was 2390 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; the live hog price in Henan dropped from 12.48 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to 10.8 yuan/kg at the end of the month; the egg price in Guantao, Hebei dropped from 3.33 yuan/jin at the beginning of the month to 2.78 yuan/jin at the end of the month [8]. - Futures Review: In February, corn futures rose strongly (the 2605 contract rose 3.6% month - on - month, closing at 2360 yuan/ton), live hog futures fluctuated downward to a record low (the 2605 contract fell 1.42% month - on - month, closing at 11485 yuan/ton), and egg futures showed near - term strength and long - term weakness (the 2603 contract rose 1.73% month - on - month, closing at 3002 yuan/500KG) [9]. - Strategy Review: The previous strategies for corn, live hogs, and eggs have been verified by the market. For example, the low - buying strategy for corn around 2100 yuan/ton and the high - selling strategy for live hog 2603 contract around 12000 yuan have achieved results [10]. 3.2 Corn Analysis - Macro Logic: Internationally, geopolitical conflicts drive macro - sentiment; domestically, macro - drivers are mainly reflected in industrial policies [13][80]. - Industry Logic: It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle. Key policies to focus on include reserve purchases, auctions of targeted rice/imported corn, and grain import policies [13][81]. - Supply - Demand Logic: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic corn supply - demand pattern turns to basic balance. Globally, the supply pressure decreases year - on - year, but the supply pressure of US corn is prominent. Domestically, the production can basically cover consumption. However, attention should be paid to the policy - guided import and domestic grain substitution scale, as well as the rhythm and scale of policy - grain supply and the change of import policies. On the demand side, the livestock and poultry inventories are still relatively high, but they are expected to decline in 2026. After the Spring Festival, the substitution of wheat for corn in North China has increased [14][82]. - Variety View: In the short - to - medium - term, the short - term supply - demand mismatch drives the spot to be strong, but the rapid increase in temperature may lead to a short - term decline in the spot price. The futures may follow the spot. In the long - term, the pricing logic of substitution + planting cost remains, and policy orientation should be focused on [14][83]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a wide - range trading strategy in the medium - term. In the short - term, pay attention to the selling pressure of farmers' concentrated grain sales after the temperature rises and the purchase - sales game of downstream inventory replenishment. For the 2605 contract, the resistance is at 2400, the first support is at 2350 - 2370, and the second support is at 2300 - 2330 [15][84]. 3.3 Live Hog Analysis - Macro Logic: Pay attention to the interaction between China's CPI trend and hog prices, as well as industrial policies [39][89]. - Industry Logic: Under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies, the structure of the breeding market may change [39][90]. - Supply - Demand Logic: From the perspective of sow inventory, as of December 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows decreased to 39.61 million, 101.6% of the normal level, and the decline was less than expected. From the perspective of newborn piglets, the supply of live hogs before March 2026 was high, and the supply pressure may ease from April. The current high slaughter weight also exerts pressure on the market. In addition, the import of pork and related products is at a relatively low level, and the frozen - product inventory is also low [38][40][43]. - Market View: In the short - term, the supply exceeds demand in March, and hog prices are at a low level. In the medium - term, the supply pressure may ease from April to June. In the long - term, the supply pressure remains before August, and the high - point expectations of far - month contracts are lowered [38][40][90]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a bottom - range trading strategy. For the 2605 contract, the support is at 10500 - 11000, and the resistance is at 11500; for the 2607 contract, the support is at 12000, and the resistance is at 12500; for the 2609 contract, the support is at 13000, and the resistance is at 13500 [40][91][92]. 3.4 Egg Analysis - Macro Logic: Domestically, focus on raw material prices and CPI changes, and pay attention to the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [56][96]. - Industry Logic: The market share of leading enterprises in the egg - laying hen breeding industry is relatively low. The industry is expected to transform from traditional decentralized breeding to intensive breeding, with small - scale farmers gradually exiting the market and brand - building becoming an important development direction [57][97]. - Supply - Demand Logic: At the end of 2025, the egg price rose rapidly, the culling rhythm slowed down, and the supply pressure was postponed. In February 2026, the inventory of laying hens increased, and in March, it is expected to be 1.342 billion. March is a seasonal consumption off - season, and the supply - demand imbalance persists [58][98]. - Variety View: In the short - to - medium - term, the supply pressure of eggs is postponed, and the supply - demand imbalance will continue to suppress egg prices at a low level. In the long - term, the expansion of the breeding scale may limit the price increase. [59][99]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, focus on short - selling opportunities for near - month contracts. For the 2604 contract, the resistance is at 3250 - 3300, and the support is at 3150; for the 2605 contract, the resistance is at 3400 - 3450, and the support is at 3300. In the medium - to - long - term, focus on the culling and molting of hens. If the inventory of laying hens remains above 1.3 billion in the first half of the year, the egg price increase in the second half of the year will be limited. It is recommended that breeding enterprises lock in profits through far - month contracts [60][99].