需求不及预期，V高位回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the domestic PVC spot market oscillated downward. The upstream energy prices回调 due to geopolitical easing, and the short - term expectations of bulk commodities and industrial policies were poor. The market returned to the fundamental trend. During the holiday, PVC production enterprises maintained high - load production, supply increased slowly, downstream product enterprises were still in the process of resuming work, mainly for export delivery. The industry inventory increased seasonally, and short - term supply did not decrease. There were uncertainties in domestic and foreign demand, and the spot fundamentals were under pressure. Coupled with the weakening of the cost of the calcium carbide method, the spot price oscillated weakly. The scale of new maintenance of PVC production enterprises this week was extremely small, the market supply remained high, domestic trade demand was recovering, and foreign trade exports were on delivery schedule. However, long - term orders were on hold due to tax rebates. The market inventory still had a trend of further accumulation with the recovery of logistics. The probability of the price of calcium carbide and other materials rebounding from the bottom increased, and the cost bottom support was improving. Fundamentally, the PVC spot market maintained a weak oscillation within a range. Considering the increasing number of subsequent policies, the downward space of the futures price was limited in the short term. It was expected that the ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - type 5 PVC in the East China region would be in the range of 4,600 - 4,780 yuan/ton. Short - term focus should be on the inventory removal speed and overseas price performance. Although the short - term absolute inventory level was high, there was a rush for export delivery, and the inventory would enter a period of rapid removal in March. In the medium and long term, the rush for exports would overdraw future demand, and the profit was good with a high operating rate, so the scale of spring maintenance might be lower than expected. The trading strategy was to go long at low prices without chasing the rise, to wait and see for arbitrage, and to wait and see for over - the - counter trading [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Market situation: After the holiday, the PVC spot market oscillated downward. The upstream energy prices回调, and the market returned to the fundamental trend. The supply increased slowly, downstream enterprises were resuming work, and the inventory increased seasonally. The cost of the calcium carbide method weakened, and the spot price oscillated weakly [4] - Outlook: The market supply remained high, domestic trade demand was recovering, and foreign trade exports were on delivery schedule. The inventory still had a trend of further accumulation. The cost bottom support was improving, and the market would maintain a weak oscillation within a range. The downward space of the futures price was limited in the short term. It was expected that the ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - type 5 PVC in the East China region would be in the range of 4,600 - 4,780 yuan/ton [4] - Focus points: Short - term focus on the inventory removal speed and overseas price performance. In March, the inventory would enter a period of rapid removal. In the medium and long term, the rush for exports would overdraw future demand, and the scale of spring maintenance might be lower than expected [4] - Trading strategy: Go long at low prices without chasing the rise; wait and see for arbitrage; wait and see for over - the - counter trading [4] Chapter 2: Fundamental Data Core Data Changes - Production: The output of PVC production enterprises was 502,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% (1,000 tons) and a year - on - year increase of 9.37% (43,100 tons). Among them, the output of calcium carbide - method enterprises was 351,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 0.04%; the output of ethylene - method enterprises was 151,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.80% and a year - on - year increase of 39.73% [5] - Inventory: The sample inventory of the PVC industry was 1,914,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, a month - on - month increase of 20.23% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year increase of 36.46%. The inventory of production enterprises was 561,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%, a month - on - month increase of 65.80% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. The social inventory of PVC was 1,353,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% after the holiday, a year - on - year increase of 58.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 64.42% compared with after the Spring Festival last year [5] - Load and maintenance: The loss of maintenance and production reduction this week was 108,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.09% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.01%. The production capacity scale of maintenance enterprises in February was 2.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.09%. The preliminary statistics of maintenance production capacity in March was 1.89 million tons [5] - Downstream enterprises: The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week was 17.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 11.36% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year increase of 25.35%. The profile machine - starting rate was 11.30%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year decrease of 25.80%; the pipe machine - starting rate was 13.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year decrease of 28.28%. The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises increased by 0.2 days to 12.6 days [5] - Export: The sample export order volume of PVC production enterprises increased by 2.75% compared with before the holiday to 19.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.58%. The delivery volume increased by 138% compared with before the holiday to 53,800 tons (including the total delivery volume during the holiday), and the volume to be delivered decreased by 11.87% to 227,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 89.91%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, shipping space, expected increase in sea freight, and the fact that enterprises had not announced the signing price for April, the atmosphere of export order - signing during and after the Spring Festival was weak, and the delivery price of PVC in March stabilized after the holiday [5] PVC Supply Analysis - Enterprise output by process: The output of calcium carbide - method enterprises was 351,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 0.04%; the output of ethylene - method enterprises was 151,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.80% and a year - on - year increase of 39.73% [5] - Enterprise output by region: Not provided in the content - Enterprise pre - sales by process: Not provided in the content - Enterprise capacity utilization by process: Not provided in the content - Raw material source weekly operating data: Not provided in the content - Maintenance enterprise statistics: Many enterprises had maintenance plans from February to April, including Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, etc. Some were due to high - cost reasons, and some were routine maintenance [23] - Production enterprise production increase plans: Many enterprises had production increase plans, such as Zhejiang Jiajiaxingcheng New Materials, Qilu Petrochemical, etc. The production time varied from 2025 to the long - term future, and some plans were uncertain or on hold [24] PVC Cost Analysis - Raw material cost comparison over the years: Not provided in the content - Raw material gross profit comparison over the years: Not provided in the content PVC Inventory Analysis - Production enterprise inventory by process/region: Not provided in the content - PVC social inventory/industry inventory: The sample inventory of the PVC industry was 1,914,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, a month - on - month increase of 20.23% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year increase of 36.46%. The inventory of production enterprises was 561,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%, a month - on - month increase of 65.80% compared with before the holiday, and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. The social inventory of PVC was 1,353,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% after the holiday, a year - on - year increase of 58.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 64.42% compared with after the Spring Festival last year [5] PVC Demand Analysis - Product enterprise operation and inventory: The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week was 17.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 11.36% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year increase of 25.35%. The profile machine - starting rate was 11.30%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year decrease of 25.80%; the pipe machine - starting rate was 13.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 12.00% compared with before the holiday and a year - on - year decrease of 28.28%. The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises increased by 0.2 days to 12.6 days [5]