加菜籽反倾销终审落地，对国内菜油价格影响中性偏空

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On February 28, 2026, China's Ministry of Commerce announced the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed that started on September 9, 2024, imposing a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed from March 1, 2026, for 5 years. After the result, the comprehensive tax rate dropped to 14.9%, reopening the trade channel between China and Canada [1][4]. - In the short term, the reduction in import tariffs on Canadian rapeseed did not exceed market expectations, and the decline in domestic rapeseed import profit limited new purchases. The short - term negative impact on the domestic rapeseed industry was relatively limited. Currently, the market focuses on the positive factors of rising crude oil and tight supply - demand of rapeseed products, and domestic rapeseed oil fluctuates strongly at a high level. However, after the tax reduction, rapeseed purchased in January - February can be processed, and the supply - demand of rapeseed products will loosen in March, suppressing the increase of rapeseed oil prices [2][12]. - In the medium - to - long term, from March to May is the peak period for imported rapeseed to arrive in China. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed oil has turned upward and will continue to increase. In the second quarter, the supply - demand of rapeseed oil will loosen significantly. With the record - high harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increasing production season of Southeast Asian palm oil, the supply of oils at home and abroad will increase. The easing of the Middle East situation may weaken the driving force of international crude oil on oils. Domestic rapeseed oil faces the risk of high - level adjustment, but there is bottom support, and the overall trend is wide - range oscillation [2][12]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Anti - Dumping Investigation Results - The investigation authority determined that Canadian rapeseed was dumped in China, harming the domestic rapeseed industry. A 5.9% anti - dumping duty was imposed from March 1, 2026, for 5 years. Companies that paid a 75.8% deposit from August 14 to December 31, 2025, will get the remaining deposit back after deducting the anti - dumping duty [4]. 2. Comparison of Tax Rates Before and After the Final Result - Before the final result, the comprehensive tax rate for importing Canadian rapeseed was 84.8% (9% tariff + 75.8% deposit), severely suppressing purchases. After the result, the comprehensive tax rate is 14.9% (9% tariff + 5.9% anti - dumping duty), which is within an acceptable range [1][6]. 3. Impact on Import Profit and Purchases - The market's early anticipation of improved China - Canada relations led to a sharp increase in ICE rapeseed futures prices and premiums from January to February, causing the domestic import profit of Canadian rapeseed to deteriorate rapidly. For example, the March - shipment rapeseed's disk profit on January 5 was 608 yuan/ton, but the May - shipment rapeseed's disk profit on March 5 dropped to - 141 yuan/ton. Currently, the loss in disk profit restrains short - term purchases [7]. 4. Changes in Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/2026 season, the global rapeseed supply increased due to a bumper harvest, but demand was weak. The global rapeseed ending inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio increased year - on - year, with the inventory - to - sales ratio of 10.94% being the highest in the past five years. Canadian rapeseed's demand was suppressed due to export restrictions to China, and its inventory - to - sales ratio increased by 5.64% year - on - year to 17.65%, the second - highest in the past five years. After the tax reduction, the difference in rapeseed supply - demand between China and foreign countries will gradually narrow [9]. 5. Rapeseed Arrival Forecast - Chinese traders purchased about 650,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed in mid - January, which is expected to arrive in China from March to May. The estimated rapeseed arrivals from March to May are 195,000, 260,000, and 325,000 tons respectively, an increase compared to January - February. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in China has started to increase, and the supply pressure will improve the current tight supply - demand situation [10]. 6. Potential Impact of Australian Rapeseed - There are market rumors that China is considering opening commercial purchases of Australian rapeseed. If implemented, the source of domestic rapeseed supply will be further expanded [11].