沥青月报：顶部区间-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical event's positive impact on asphalt ranks last. When the cost side has a high valuation, it is recommended to take a medium - term short position [16]. - It is likely that the asphalt valuation will decline in the second half of the year. The current independent refinery's operation rate is at a low level, with limited downward space. The return of main refinery capacity and the seasonal low - valuation period will limit the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak oscillation of crude oil on the cost side will also restrict the upward space of asphalt's single - side price [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The report provides a price trend chart of the asphalt main contract in the near - month, showing the price changes from 2025/1/1 to 2026/2/25. The factors affecting the price include supply - demand and cost changes [13][14]. - Factor Assessment and Strategy: In terms of supply, the domestic heavy - traffic asphalt operation rate has entered the traditional peak season, while overseas imports remain relatively sluggish, and the trade flow from Venezuela has not been fully replaced by Canada, with a neutral outlook. In terms of demand, the demand for waterproofing membranes is better than expected, and the overall demand has slightly recovered compared to previous years, showing a bullish trend. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory is better than before due to trade imports, but the concentrated arrival of goods at ports is expected to suppress inventory reduction in the inland area, with a neutral - bearish outlook. In terms of cost, the upward space of the crude oil cost side is limited, and OPEC is expected to enter the next small - scale production - increase cycle, with a neutral outlook. The previous view was to hold a wait - and - see attitude towards all oil products in the short term, while the current view is to take a medium - term short position when the price is high [16]. - Medium - term Impact Factors and Assessment: In terms of supply, imports are difficult to drive, and the operation rate of main refineries is expected to recover, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation. However, the significant recovery of local refineries is needed for the valuation to decline, and local refineries are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short and medium term, with a neutral outlook. In terms of demand, the operation rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but the overall shipment volume is lower than expected. The infrastructure peak season has passed, and the overall demand is expected to be flat, with a neutral - bearish outlook. In terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. With the implementation of OPEC's production increase, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly, with a bearish - oscillating outlook. Overall, it is likely that the asphalt valuation will decline in the second half of the year [17]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - Spot Price: The report presents the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, East China, Northeast China, and North China from 2015 to 2026 [21][22]. - Basis Trend: It shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2022 to 2026 [28]. - Term Structure: It provides the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts such as 03 - 06, 03 - 05, and 04 - 05 from 2022 to 2026 [31][32]. 3.3 Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Profit: The report shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, the production profit of Shandong asphalt, the relationship between asphalt operation and profit, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price from 2019 to 2026 [36]. - Imports: It presents the import volume of asphalt, diluted asphalt, and the import profit from South Korea and Singapore from 2022 to 2025 [38]. - Import Volume: It shows the cumulative import volume of asphalt from South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia, as well as the monthly import volume of Venezuelan oil from 2022 to 2025 [41]. - Valuation Ratio: It shows the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt and the ratio of asphalt to Brent from 2022 to 2026 [44]. - Refinery Profit: It presents the refining profit of main refineries and Shandong local refineries from 2022 to 2026, as well as the operation rate and production profit of petroleum coke [47][50]. 3.4 Inventory - Domestic Inventory: It shows the inventory of domestic factories, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory from 2022 to 2026 [54]. - Warehouse Receipts: It presents the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract from 2022 to 2026 [58]. - Inventory and Price: It shows the relationship between inventory and profit, and the relationship between profit and price [62]. 3.5 Demand Side - Enterprise Shipment Volume: It shows the asphalt shipment volume of Chinese sample enterprises, Shandong sample enterprises, East China sample enterprises, and North China sample enterprises from 2023 to 2026 [68]. - Downstream Operation Rate: It shows the operation rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2022 to 2026 [75][73]. - Highway Investment: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China, the monthly year - on - year change and monthly value of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure from 2016 to 2025 [78]. - Road - related Machinery: It shows the monthly sales volume of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China from 2022 to 2026 [81]. - Related Consumption: It shows the cumulative year - on - year change of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management, and the cumulative value of local government special - purpose bond issuance from 2023 to 2025 [84][85]. 3.6 Related Indicators - Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures from 2022 to 2026 [91]. 3.7 Industry Chain Structure Diagram - Crude Oil Industry Chain: It briefly mentions the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industry chain [96]. - Asphalt Industry Chain: From the production process perspective, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used in road construction. By use, it can be divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [100].