橡胶周报：橡胶：胶价季节性承压下行-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran has caused significant price increases in oil and chemical products, leading to a sharp rise in the prices of butadiene and butadiene rubber due to increased costs. Currently, the increase in crude oil prices far exceeds that of downstream products. As downstream producers gradually reduce their production loads and supply decreases, the crude oil price increase will gradually be passed on to downstream products, including butadiene rubber. The market is temporarily dominated by macro - capital sentiment. It is expected to experience significant short - term fluctuations and later return to fundamental - driven trends. Rubber's fundamental situation is that it is prone to fall and difficult to rise after the winter storage period in the first half of the year, but the expectation of capital allocation to commodities limits the downside space, and the market's expectation of state reserve purchases increases the upside potential of RU [10]. - The EU's Zero - Deforestation Act (EUDR) has been postponed, which will cause a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the procurement process of rubber and tire factories, resulting in short - term negative impacts on demand. The news of EUDR postponement is marginally positive but with limited positive expectations in some cases and marginally negative in others [14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - The conflict between the US and Iran has led to price increases in oil and chemical products, and the cost - driven rise in butadiene and butadiene rubber prices. The price increase of crude oil will gradually be passed on to downstream products. The market is currently influenced by macro - capital sentiment, with short - term fluctuations expected and a later return to fundamental - driven trends. Rubber is likely to decline after winter storage, but capital allocation and state reserve purchase expectations affect its price range [10]. - The tire factory full - steel开工率 is 65.9% (36.73%), and the resumption of work after the Spring Festival is normal. The combined inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 87.01 (4.05) million tons, with continuous inventory build - up. There are differences in medium - term supply expectations, with some expecting small fluctuations and others expecting an increase of 15 - 25 million tons. The market expects subsequent state reserve purchase plans. The long - side logic is mainly based on macro expectations and positive expectations for Chinese policies, while the short - side logic is the weak actual demand and the expectation of reduced demand due to tariff policies. The export of rubber from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire has increased. In the short term, rubber prices are greatly affected by macro - capital, showing a weakening trend in the short term. It is recommended to consider the strategy of going long on the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract for band - trading opportunities [13]. - Trading strategy: For the hedging strategy of going long on the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract, with a profit - loss ratio of 1.5:1 and an irregular recommended period. If the price difference is above 3150, gradually build positions and conduct repeated band - trading operations [15]. - For full - latex, the basis is - 1235 yuan/ton, the estimated gross profit margin of rubber farmers is 30%, the expected output is 14.9 million tons, the demand is reflected by a tire factory开工率 of 65.9% (36.73%), and the inventory is 87.01 (4.05) million tons. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, consider short - term long positions when RU is above 17,000, short - term short positions when below 16,700, and conduct band - trading operations for the hedging strategy of buying NR and selling RU2609 [16]. - For No. 20 rubber, the basis is 718, the estimated gross profit margin of rubber farmers is 73%, the expected output is 14.9 million tons, the demand is reflected by a tire factory开工率 of 65.9% (36.73%), and the inventory is 87.01 (4.05) million tons. Similar to full - latex, it is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, consider short - term long positions when RU is above 17,000, short - term short positions when below 16,700, and conduct band - trading operations for the hedging strategy of buying NR and selling RU2609 [17]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern of being prone to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectations and was below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [22]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while China's demand remains stable [28]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been on a downward trend since Q4 2020 [32]. 3. Profit and Ratio - The ratios between rubber and other commodities such as copper, Brent crude oil, rebar, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index are generally normal, without special or notable values [40][44][48]. 4. Cost End - The general market view on the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. Higher rubber prices lead to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, while lower prices result in less maintenance and lower costs. Rubber farmers are more enthusiastic when the price is between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan [52]. 5. Demand End - The data on the full - steel tire and semi - steel tire开工 rates show no special or notable values [57]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and it is expected to gradually recover in the later stage, which will affect the supporting tires. Commercial vehicle sales correspond to the domestic supporting demand [60]. - The export of truck tires is highly prosperous, but it is expected to decline slightly in the later stage, corresponding to the monthly export value of new pneumatic rubber tires for passenger cars or freight motor vehicles [63]. 6. Supply End - The rubber import data source was last updated to December 2021, and the analysis value of imports has decreased. Rubber imports include natural and synthetic rubber [67]. - The supply data of major rubber - producing countries in ANRPC, such as production, consumption, export, and import, are generally normal, without special or notable values [71][75][78][81][85][88][91][95][99]. - In January 2026, rubber production was 1.1159 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.67% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The cumulative production was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.67%. Rubber export was 0.8344 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.11% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.07%. The cumulative export was 0.834 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.11%. Rubber consumption was 0.9315 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.57%. The cumulative consumption was 0.932 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.74%. China's consumption was 0.596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.87% and a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The cumulative consumption was 0.596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.87% [102][103]. 7. Recent Market Focus: Butadiene Rubber Catch - up - The conflict between the US and Iran has led to significant price increases in oil and chemical products, causing the prices of butadiene and butadiene rubber to rise due to increased costs. As downstream producers reduce production loads and supply decreases, the crude oil price increase will be passed on to downstream products [120]. - The supply of butadiene is expected to increase, and the processing profit of butadiene is expected to decline [126]. - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period (2026 - 2030), the Chinese ethylene industry will enter a new round of capacity expansion cycle. It is expected that the total capacity will reach 85 - 90 million tons per year by 2030, maintaining the world's first position. The butadiene capacity, as a supporting project for refining and chemical projects, will increase passively following the increase in refining and chemical projects [128]. - The new butadiene production capacity in 2026 is expected to be 620,000 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 8.9%. The new butadiene capacity growth rate in 2026 is lower than that in 2025, reducing the supply pressure [130][131].