双焦月报：美伊局势升级显著带动商品情绪转向多头，双焦价格预计进入震荡-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the US - Iran situation has significantly boosted the bullish sentiment in the commodity market, which has a positive impact on the energy and strategic resource - related varieties, including coking coal and coke. However, in the short term, the downstream steel mills and coking plants are in the active de - stocking stage, which restricts the demand for coking coal and coke. Although the market sentiment has changed, there is insufficient support for a sharp price rebound. In the long - term, the report is optimistic about the coking coal price, especially during the period from June to October [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In February, the coking coal futures price fluctuated downward, with a monthly decline of 53 yuan/ton or - 4.55%. In early March, it rebounded slightly, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton or + 3.06%. The coking coal price was affected by the escalation of the US - Iran situation and the "Two Sessions". The coking coal price was weak in the first week after the Spring Festival due to factors such as downstream de - stocking and the resumption of coal mine production. The coking coal price is currently testing the support near 1100 yuan/ton. The coke price also fluctuated downward in February, with a monthly decline of 79.5 yuan/ton or - 4.61%, and rebounded slightly in March, with a weekly increase of 61 yuan/ton or + 3.71%, mainly following the cost - side coking coal price [14][15][20]. - Monthly Key Points Summary: - Spot Price and Basis: The spot prices of coking coal and coke generally declined. The spot prices of various coking coal varieties and coke were at a discount to the futures prices, with different degrees of premium. - Variety Positions: The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the positions of the April and June contracts are significantly higher than the same period, which requires attention to the warehouse receipt pressure. - Domestic Production: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines increased by 9.88 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output decreased by about 54.39 tons or - 0.90% year - on - year. The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 2.99 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output increased by about 157.71 tons or + 11.34% year - on - year. - Overseas Imports: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remained at a high level in the same period of history. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal was - 265 yuan/ton, and the import window was still closed. - Demand: The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants decreased by 0.45 tons month - on - month. The coking profit of independent coking plants was 17 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton month - on - month. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 5.69 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill profitability rate was 38.10%, a decrease of 1.73 pct month - on - month. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 126.7 tons month - on - month, and the steel inventory continued to accumulate [21]. - Supply - Demand Structure and Outlook: The daily average supply of coking coal in the country is about 149.84 tons, and the demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal is 149.21 tons and 146.93 tons respectively. The supply - demand structure of coking coal is relatively balanced in the short - term, but it is evaluated as relatively loose considering the downstream de - stocking. The demand for coke converted from hot metal is about 109.24 tons, slightly lower than the daily average coke output. In the short - term, due to the change in market sentiment, short - selling operations may not be appropriate. It is advisable to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and highly elastic varieties. In the long - term, the report is optimistic about the coking coal price, especially from June to October [22]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price: As of March 5, 2026, the prices of various coking coal and coke varieties showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal was 1476 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54.4 yuan/ton month - on - month. The price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month [26][37]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of coking coal and coke generally showed a premium situation. The 5 - 9 spread of coking coal was - 95 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of coke was - 68.5 yuan/ton. Both maintained a Contango structure [44][50][53]. 3.3 Positions and Variety Ratios - Variety Positions: As of March 5, 2026, the total unilateral position of coking coal was 668,300 lots, a decrease of 50,500 lots month - on - month. The total unilateral position of coke was 41,200 lots, a decrease of 3,100 lots month - on - month. The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the positions of the April and June contracts are significantly higher than the same period, which requires attention to the warehouse receipt pressure [62][63]. - Variety Ratios: This week, JM/I increased by 0.01, HC/JM decreased by 0.05, J/I increased by 0.04, HC/J decreased by 0.05, and JM/J decreased by 0.01. The valuation of coking coal and coke relative to iron ore is still at a low level [67][71]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Domestic Coking Coal Production: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 74.78 tons, an increase of 9.88 tons month - on - month. The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal washing plants was 19.9 tons, an increase of 2.99 tons month - on - month [76][78]. - Imported Coking Coal: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remained at a high level in the same period of history. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal was - 265 yuan/ton, and the import window was still closed. In 2025, the cumulative imports of Mongolian, Russian, Canadian, and Australian coking coal showed different trends, while the import of US coking coal was still stagnant [81][84][87][91]. - Coke Production: The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants was 110.94 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons month - on - month. The coking profit of independent coking plants was 17 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton month - on - month [94]. - Downstream Steel Industry: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 227.59 tons, a decrease of 5.69 tons month - on - month. The steel mill profitability rate was 38.10%, a decrease of 1.73 pct month - on - month. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 126.7 tons month - on - month, and the steel inventory continued to accumulate [100][110]. - Supply - Demand Structure: The daily average supply of coking coal in the country is about 149.84 tons, and the demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal is 149.21 tons and 146.93 tons respectively. The supply - demand structure of coking coal is relatively balanced in the short - term, but it is evaluated as relatively loose considering the downstream de - stocking. The demand for coke converted from hot metal is about 109.24 tons, slightly lower than the daily average coke output [112]. 3.5 Inventory - Inventory Overview: As of March 5, 2026, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 41.9 tons month - on - month, and the total coke inventory increased by 4.64 tons month - on - month. The inventory of coking coal in sample mines increased, while the inventories of coking coal in independent coking plants and steel mills decreased (active de - stocking). The inventory of coke in independent coking plants increased, the inventory of coke in steel mills decreased (active de - stocking), and the inventory of coke in ports increased [115][116].