棉花月报：关注下游开机情况，回调尝试买入-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton futures significantly increased in positions and prices, with the market pre - gaming the peak season in March. The report suggests focusing on the downstream startup situation in March. If the downstream startup supports, Zhengzhou cotton still has room to rise. The strategy is to maintain buying on dips [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicts that global cotton production in the 2026/27 season will decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption is expected to remain stable at 25 million tons [9]. - From February 19th to 26th, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons. Among them, the export to China that week was 1,800 tons, with cumulative exports of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons [9]. - As of the week of February 27th, the spinning mill startup rate was 64.6%, a 24.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.36 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [9]. - In January, the USDA predicted that the global production in the 2025/26 season was 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December prediction and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December prediction and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The predicted US production was 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December prediction, with export estimates remaining unchanged and the inventory - to - consumption ratio at 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease [9]. - Brazilian production was estimated to remain at 4.08 million tons; Indian production was lowered by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; Chinese production was raised by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons [9]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [9]. - View and Strategy - After the Spring Festival, Zhengzhou cotton futures increased in positions and prices. Focus on the downstream startup situation in March. If it is favorable, Zhengzhou cotton has room to rise, and the strategy is to buy on dips [9]. - Fundamental Assessment - The basis was 1,351 yuan/ton, with a positive score of +0.5, indicating a strengthening basis. The monthly spread of Zhengzhou cotton 5 - 9 was - 50 yuan/ton, with a score of +0, showing little change. The spinning immediate profit was - 1,859 yuan/ton, with a score of +0, indicating a decrease in profit. The Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 257 yuan/ton, with a score of +1, indicating strong prices in the production area. The FC index M 1% was 12,445 yuan/ton, and the FC index M sliding - scale duty was 13,633 yuan/ton, with a score of - 0.5, indicating that the domestic valuation was relatively high compared to the international market. The strategy is to maintain buying on dips [10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation - For the unilateral strategy, the recommendation is to buy on dips, driven by the reduction of the new - year planting area and good macro - expectations [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - Spot Price and Basis - The report presents the trends of the China Cotton Price Index and the basis of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract over the years [25]. - Import Profit - It shows the trends of the 1% tariff internal - external spread and the sliding - scale duty internal - external spread [27]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Monthly Spread - The trends of the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread and the 5 - 9 spread are provided [29]. - Production and Sales Area Spread and Spinning Profit - The trends of the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's immediate profit are presented [31]. - Foreign Market Spread - The trends of the US - Brazil spread and the FCindexM1% - CotlookA Index 1% tariff are shown [35]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - Domestic Cotton Production - The processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton are presented [39]. - Cotton Import Volume - The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton are shown [41]. - US Export Contract Quantity to China - The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China are presented [43]. - Cotton Yarn Import Volume - The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn are shown [45]. - Downstream Startup Rate - The startup rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented [48]. - National Sales Progress - The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown [51]. - Cotton Inventory - The weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the monthly inventory of commercial + industrial cotton are presented [53]. - Spinning Mill's Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory - The cotton inventory and yarn inventory of spinning mills are presented [55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - US Planting Situation - The proportion of the US cotton - planting area without drought and the cotton good - quality rate are presented [59]. - US Production Situation - The bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton are presented [61]. - US Yield and Planting Area - The predicted yield and planting area of US cotton are presented [64]. - US Export Contract Progress - The cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton are presented [66]. - US Export Shipment Volume - The annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton are presented [68]. - US Cotton Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton are presented [69]. - Brazilian Yield and Planting Area - The planting area and yield of Brazilian cotton are presented [71]. - Brazilian Export Volume - The predicted and monthly export volumes of Brazilian cotton are presented [73]. - Brazilian Cotton Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton are presented [74]. - Indian Yield and Planting Area - The planting area and yield of Indian cotton are presented [76]. - Indian Consumption and Import - Export - The consumption, import, and export volumes of Indian cotton are presented [78]. - Indian Cotton Supply Surplus/Shortage and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - The supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are presented [79].