原油日报：高开后震荡下行-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, with the further production increase plan undetermined and subject to adjustment. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate strongly in the near future. The progress of the situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on crude oil price fluctuations [1]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ will increase oil production in April to cope with the sharp decline in Iran's crude oil exports after the attack. The next meeting will be held on April 5. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, while the decrease in refined oil inventories was relatively small, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has not made substantial progress, and both sides are still attacking each other. The US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran, and Iran counterattacked. The oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, and Iraq's Rumaila oil field has cut its daily production. Qatar's LNG production has been affected. Trump said the military action against Iran may last 4 - 5 weeks, and Iran claims to be ready for a long - term war. The US will provide insurance for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and may send naval escorts. Saudi Arabia is considering transferring crude oil through the east - west oil pipeline. The US Treasury is expected to announce measures to deal with soaring energy prices [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 fell 0.14% to 664.8 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 622.1 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 696.6 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1,576 to 34,244 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79 per barrel to $52.21 per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. US EIA data on March 4 showed that the US crude oil inventory for the week ending February 27 increased by 3.475 million barrels, exceeding expectations, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase [3]. Supply - side Situation - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that the average total crude oil production of OPEC+ in January was 42.448 million barrels per day, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day compared to December, mainly due to supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran. US crude oil production decreased by 6,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day in the week of February 27. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 21.02 million barrels per day, with gasoline and diesel production decreasing week - on - week, driving the single - week supply of US crude oil products to continue to decrease by 7.40% week - on - week [4].