3月钢矿料震荡偏多，关注需求成色

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel and ore markets are expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias in March, and attention should be paid to the strength of demand. If demand recovery falls short of expectations, prices may decline again. Additionally, potential impacts from the Iran situation should be monitored [6]. - The strategy of going long on rebar and short on hot-rolled coils can be considered, with a stop-profit target of over 200 points [5]. - For single-sided trading, a bullish approach can be attempted with appropriate stop-loss settings [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Review 1.2 Market Review - In February 2026, rebar prices fluctuated downward with a small range, reaching a maximum of 3139 and a minimum of 3005 [10]. - In February, iron ore prices trended downward. The main iron ore contract reached a maximum of 797.0 and a minimum of 736.0 [12][13]. Part 2: Current Analysis 2.1 Macro Logic - In 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.0%. The recent government work report set the economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5% - 5% [17]. - In the first quarter of 2026, advance issuance of special bonds and implementation of "two new" subsidies (equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in) took place. Structural monetary tools were used to cut interest rates and increase new re-lending quotas to support private and innovative enterprises. Domestic demand was restored, with consumption moderately recovering and infrastructure investment accelerating, but the real estate sector was still in a bottoming - out phase. External demand remained resilient, with exports maintaining positive growth on a high base, but the Iran situation might affect exports and drag down the first - quarter economic growth [17]. 2.2 Supply - Demand Logic - Real Estate: Real estate is the core demand source for construction steel, accounting for over 60% of construction steel demand and 25% - 30% of the country's total steel demand, and its proportion in total steel demand is decreasing. Since 2021, real estate investment and other indicators have turned negative, and steel prices have entered a downward cycle. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction area was - 20.4%, the year - on - year growth rate of construction area was - 10.0%, and the year - on - year growth rate of completion area was - 18.1%. The leading indicator, land transaction area, decreased by 10.4% year - on - year, indicating a continued decline in steel demand for real estate new construction and main construction in 2026 - 2027 [21][24]. - Special Bonds: In 2025, the total issuance of special bonds reached a record high of about 7.68 trillion yuan, including about 4.59 trillion yuan in new special bonds and about 3.09 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds. Special bonds were mainly invested in infrastructure, which directly drove the demand for construction steel. In 2026, about 4.6 trillion yuan in new special bonds are expected, and the advance issuance and disbursement of special bonds in the first quarter will provide funds for demand recovery in March [27][31]. - Infrastructure Investment: In 2025, infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, the first negative growth in recent years, showing a quarterly slowdown. In 2026, with the support of fiscal policies, the disbursement of special bond funds in March will drive the start of steel - using projects and may be the core driving force for a rebound [31]. - Manufacturing: In 2025, national manufacturing investment increased by 0.6% year - on - year, a significant decline from 2024, leading to a slowdown in the growth rate of steel demand in machinery, equipment, and home appliances. In 2026, the automotive industry showed structural differentiation, with production expected to rebound in March. The shipbuilding industry maintained high - level prosperity, and the output of excavators and home appliances showed seasonal fluctuations [35][36][37]. - Steel Exports: In January 2026, China's steel exports decreased significantly. In February, exports continued to decline, and in March, exports are expected to recover but with limited strength. The Iran situation has a significant indirect impact on steel exports [40]. - Steel Production: In 2025, China's crude steel production was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. In February 2026, steel production decreased significantly, and in March, it is expected to rebound significantly but may be restricted by various factors [41]. - Iron Ore Supply: In 2025, China's iron ore imports were 1.259 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In March 2026, iron ore supply is expected to remain at a high level, and port inventories reached a two - year high in February [46]. - Domestic Iron Ore Production: In 2025, China's domestic iron ore production decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. In February, the operating rate of northern mines declined, and in March, it is expected to gradually recover, but the production increase is limited [50].