瑞达期货铂镍金市场周报-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange weakened significantly. The recent strong performance of the US dollar has suppressed the attractiveness of non - interest - bearing assets, and the market's consensus expectation of a marginal hawkish shift in the Fed's tone has put pressure on the precious metals market. Geopolitical tensions in the US - Iran situation have increased market risk - aversion [7]. - The platinum market is in a continuous shortage, with a significant decline in above - ground inventory. Supply in South Africa is constrained by factors such as power, cost, mine aging, and insufficient capital expenditure. On the demand side, automotive catalysts are the core support, and geopolitical tensions have enhanced platinum's attractiveness as a strategic asset. The medium - term logic of palladium is weaker than that of platinum, with relatively single - structured demand and facing long - term pressure from electric vehicle penetration and platinum substitution [7]. - In the short term, there are many macro - level disturbances, and high market volatility may continue. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading within a range [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Highlights - The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange weakened significantly. The strong US dollar and the market's expectation of a hawkish Fed have pressured the precious metals market. Geopolitical tensions in the US - Iran situation have kept market risk - aversion high [7]. - The platinum market is in shortage, and South African supply is constrained. Automotive catalysts support platinum demand, and geopolitical factors enhance its attractiveness. Palladium's medium - term logic is weaker due to single - structured demand and long - term pressure [7]. - Short - term market volatility may continue, and it is recommended to trade within a range with a light position [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The precious metals market declined, and platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange weakened significantly. As of March 6, 2026, the main palladium 2606 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was at 421.50 yuan/gram, down 9.33% for the week; the main platinum 2606 contract was at 560.50 yuan/gram, down 10.14% for the week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of February 24, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 19,605 contracts, a 5.77% week - on - week increase; the net long position of NYMEX palladium was - 1,758 contracts, a 7.59% week - on - week decrease [13][15]. - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts weakened this week. As of March 5, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was - 23.60 US dollars/ounce, and the NYMEX palladium basis was 7.50 US dollars/ounce, both weakening week - on - week [16][20]. - The basis of the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange strengthened, while that of the main palladium contract weakened. As of March 5, 2026, the platinum main contract basis was - 9.70 yuan/gram, strengthening week - on - week; the palladium main contract basis was - 23 yuan/gram, weakening week - on - week [21][23]. - NYMEX platinum and palladium inventories both increased. As of March 5, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 583,451.75 ounces, a 0.99% week - on - week increase; NYMEX palladium inventory was 205,097.54 ounces, a 10.11% week - on - week increase [24][28]. - Platinum and gold prices showed strong synchronicity, and the gold - to - platinum ratio remained basically unchanged this week [29]. 3. Industrial Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [35]. - The demand for platinum and palladium in automotive exhaust catalysts has been declining year by year due to the significant rise in the share of the new energy vehicle market. The total global demand for platinum and palladium has shown a mild slowdown [41][47]. - The supply patterns of platinum and palladium have diverged. Geopolitical tensions have tightened platinum supply [52]. - The price difference between the domestic and foreign markets of platinum and palladium main contracts widened slightly this week [56]. 4. Macroeconomic and Options - This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields strengthened simultaneously [60].