生猪月报：近月反弹抛空-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Considering that the weight and theoretical出栏量 remain high, although the散户's pen space is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening entry under the current fat - standard price difference is insufficient, so the short - term spot may maintain a weakly stable trend. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot due to the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the feed price increase. The near - end of the futures market maintains a premium structure, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. For the far - end, there is an expectation of capacity reduction, but the upward driving force of the spot is insufficient, resulting in an excessive premium, so it is advisable to wait and see [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Since February, the domestic pig price has declined smoothly after reaching the peak. In the early ten - day period, the farming side was affected by the pre - Spring Festival slaughter rhythm and had an obvious intention to reduce weight. During the festival, the live inventory accumulated. After the festival, the farming side's enthusiasm for slaughter increased, but the demand side mainly digested the inventory, with general承接 ability. The market showed an obvious oversupply situation, and the price was weak. In March, it is still in the capacity release period, and due to the poor progress in February, there is post - supply. Considering the still large average trading weight and the limited demand recovery, the pig price this month may still operate weakly at a low level, with a slight support at the stage low due to the increase in inventory and secondary fattening [11][22] - Supply Side: The official data shows that the inventory of fertile sows at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million, a decrease of 2.9% from the peak. The sow reduction since last year has been limited. Although the capacity reduction accelerated after October, the time - lag effect leads to a still large theoretical supply in the first half of this year. The fundamentals will improve in the second half of the year, but the amplitude may be limited. The sow reduction progress has slowed down due to the non - weak pig price and the rising piglet price since December last year. The theoretical出栏量 remains high in the first half of the year, reaching the peak in March. After April, although it declines seasonally, the decline is small and still higher year - on - year. Currently, the pre - holiday weight reduction by enterprises was insufficient, the inventory was accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the weight is still rising significantly after the festival, indicating an obvious short - term oversupply [11] - Demand Side: There is secondary fattening replenishment in local low - price areas, but its impact on the pig price is less than before, and the upward driving force of the pig price is insufficient. The terminal white - strip pork sales are also not ideal, and the slaughter side may still have the possibility of pressing the price to purchase pigs [11][59] - Trading Strategy: For the unilateral strategy, short on rebounds for contracts 05 - 07 and wait and see for others, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 2 months. The core driving logic includes inventory, weight, secondary fattening, fat - standard price difference, and slaughter volume, with a recommended level of two - star and the first proposed time on February 26 [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Spot Trend: The domestic pig price has declined after peaking since February. The supply - demand relationship shows oversupply, and the price is weak. In March, it may operate weakly at a low level, with a slight support at the stage low [11][22] - Basis and Spread Trend: The spot price opened significantly lower, and the recent pressure is still large. The futures market has turned into a premium structure, and the basis has turned negative. The weak spot has led to a reverse spread in the monthly spread [25] - Piglet and Sow Prices: Not specifically analyzed in terms of price trends in this section, but only presented in the form of charts [27] 3. Supply Side - Fertile Sows and Changes: The inventory of fertile sows at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million, a decrease of 2.9% from the peak. The sow reduction since last year has been limited, and the reduction progress has slowed down recently [34] - Inventory and Slaughter: The theoretical出栏量 in the first half of the year is high, reaching the peak in March. After April, it declines seasonally but is still high year - on - year [43] - Sow Culling and Sales: Not specifically analyzed in terms of trends in this section, only presented in charts [39] - Trading and Post - Slaughter Average Weight: The pre - holiday weight reduction by enterprises was insufficient, the inventory was accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the weight is still rising significantly after the festival, indicating an obvious short - term oversupply [50] 4. Demand Side - Slaughter Volume: Local low - price areas have secondary fattening replenishment, but the impact on the pig price is limited. The terminal white - strip pork sales are not ideal, and the slaughter side may press the price to purchase pigs [59] - Slaughter Start - up Rate and Gross Margin: Not specifically analyzed in terms of trends in this section, only presented in charts [61] - Spread and Price - Volume Relationship: Not specifically analyzed in terms of trends in this section, only presented in charts [63] - Fresh - Frozen Spread and Fresh Sales Rate: Not specifically analyzed in terms of trends in this section, only presented in charts [65] 5. Cost and Profit - Cost and Breeding Profit: The breeding cost is generally running at a low level, but the外购 cost has increased due to the rising piglet price. After the Spring Festival, the pig price has dropped significantly, and the breeding has turned into a loss state, but the seasonal performance is normal [70] 6. Inventory Side - Cost and Breeding Profit: The frozen - product inventory is slightly declining, but still higher seasonally and year - on - year [75]