碳酸锂月报：区域局势扰动，投机情绪降温-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the situation in Iran has intensified, leading to increased macro - concerns and a significant cooling of speculative sentiment. The commodity market has shown differentiation this week, with oil and chemical products rising, while previously rebounding varieties such as lithium carbonate, silver, and tin have corrected. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 83,000 lots this week, returning to a recent low. Fundamentally, the repeated disruptions of the mineral ban in Zimbabwe have been fully digested. This week, the upstream operating rate increased, and the destocking of domestic lithium carbonate inventory narrowed. The spot market remains tight during the peak season of lithium batteries. A decline in lithium prices may release spot buying, but before the end of the downward trend, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish. Future attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm, changes in the spot market premium/discount, and the atmosphere in the commodity market [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot and Futures Market: On March 6, the morning quote of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 154,373 yuan, down 11.15% week - on - week and 3.0% lower than the end of January. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 154,800 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 156,160 yuan, down 11.29% week - on - week and up 5.37% compared to the end of January [12][20]. - Supply: On March 5, SMM reported the weekly domestic lithium carbonate output at 22,590 tons, a 3.5% increase from the previous week. In February 2026, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 83,090 tons, a 15.1% decrease from the previous month but a 29.7% increase year - on - year. The output from January to February increased by 43.0% year - on - year. The export volume of lithium carbonate in February was 26,849 tons, and the import volume from other countries to China was 22,380 tons [12]. - Demand: The first quarter is a critical window period for battery "export rush". The demand in the off - season has been adjusted upwards, and the decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected. According to Zeyan Consulting, the output of lithium iron phosphate in February 2026 was 380,700 tons, only a 3.6% decrease from the previous month [12]. - Inventory: On March 5, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 99,373 tons, a decrease of 720 tons (- 0.7%) from the previous week. The inventory days of lithium carbonate were approximately 27.9 days. On the same day, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 36,840 tons [12]. - Cost: On March 6, the SMM quoted the price of Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate at 2,150 - 2,250 US dollars per ton, with a weekly decline of 7.76% [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is - 200 yuan (referring to the main contract LC2605). - The net positions of the top ten major seats in lithium carbonate contracts fluctuate. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan. - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 4,000 yuan [23][26]. 3.3 Supply Side - On March 5, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate output was 22,590 tons, a 3.5% increase from the previous week. In February 2026, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 83,090 tons, a 15.1% decrease from the previous month but a 29.7% increase year - on - year. The output from January to February increased by 43.0% year - on - year [31]. - In February, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 50,200 tons, a 16.5% decrease from the previous month but a 41.8% increase year - on - year. The output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite in February was 11,320 tons, a 12.1% decrease from the previous month, and the output from January to February decreased by 6.7% year - on - year [34]. - In February, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 9.7% to 13,940 tons. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end in February was 7,640 tons, a 19.5% decrease from the previous month [37]. - In January 2026, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 22,900 tons, a 24.83% increase from the previous month but a 10.59% decrease year - on - year. Among them, the export to China was 16,950 tons, a 44.82% increase from the previous month but an 11.35% decrease year - on - year. In January 2026, Chile exported 27,800 tons of lithium sulfate to China, a 475.29% increase from the previous month and a 1222.90% increase year - on - year. The export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile in February was 26,849 tons, and the export volume to China was 22,380 tons [40]. 3.4 Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited and weak growth [44]. - According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January, the domestic production of new - energy vehicles was 1.041 million, a 2.5% increase year - on - year; the sales volume was 945,000, a 0.1% increase year - on - year, and the sales volume of new - energy vehicles accounted for 40.3% of the total sales volume of new vehicles [47]. - In January 2026, about 289,000 new - energy vehicles were sold in Europe, a 20% increase year - on - year. In January 2026, about 86,000 new - energy vehicles were sold in the United States, a 25% decrease year - on - year [50]. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in January, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a 16.7% decrease from the previous month but a 55.9% increase year - on - year. In January, the domestic installed capacity of power batteries was 42.0 GWh, a 57.2% decrease from the previous month but an 8.4% increase year - on - year [53]. - According to Zeyan Consulting, the output of lithium iron phosphate in February 2026 was 380,700 tons, a 3.6% decrease from the previous month [56]. 3.5 Inventory - On March 5, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was 99,373 tons, a decrease of 720 tons (- 0.7%) from the previous week. The inventory days of lithium carbonate were approximately 27.9 days. On the same day, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 36,840 tons [63]. - Driven by the "export rush" demand, the inventory of cathode materials has decreased. The inventory of energy - storage batteries has reached a new low, while the inventory of power batteries has slightly increased in the off - season [66]. 3.6 Cost Side - On March 6, the SMM quoted the price of Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate at 2,150 - 2,250 US dollars per ton, with a weekly decline of 7.76% [74]. - In December, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 628,000 tons, a 30.2% increase year - on - year and a 7.3% decrease from the previous month. In 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 6.209 million tons, a 9.0% increase compared to the previous year. In 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import from Africa increased by 14.3% year - on - year. The supply of high - cost hard - rock mines is accelerating, and the import of lithium mines has significantly supplemented the supply [77].