铝月报：中东战事加大供应忧虑-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded. At the beginning of March, affected by the Middle East conflict, price fluctuations increased. The supply risk in the Middle East region has not been eliminated, and the planned shutdown and maintenance of South32's Mozambique aluminum smelter are expected to keep the supply tight, with a stronger expectation of tight overseas supply. As domestic downstream industries gradually resume production, the expected increase in the domestic molten aluminum ratio will relieve the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation, and aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is expected to be between 23,800 - 26,000 yuan/ton, and the LME Aluminum 3M is expected to be between 3,200 - 3,500 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 45.109 million tons. In February, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.1% year-on-year and decreased by 8.9% month-on-month. In March, production is expected to increase with a year-on-year growth of about 2.8%. The domestic molten aluminum ratio decreased by 7.7 percentage points in February and is expected to increase by 9.2 percentage points in March. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased by about 2.5% year-on-year in February. In March, production growth is expected to decline due to the shutdown of Qatar Aluminum and the maintenance of South32's Mozambique aluminum smelter [12][84]. - Inventory & Spot: As of March 5, aluminum ingot inventory reached 1.27 million tons, an increase of about 417,000 tons compared to early February. Bonded area inventory was 47,000 tons, an increase of about 4,000 tons. Aluminum rod inventory totaled 398,000 tons, an increase of 121,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory was 459,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons. The spot discount of domestic East China aluminum ingots narrowed, and the LME market Cash/3M spread strengthened [12]. - Imports and Exports: Since February, the loss of Shanghai aluminum spot imports has been expanding. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.5% and a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%. In December, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.4%; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0% [12]. - Demand: In February, the operating rate of primary aluminum processing enterprises weakened seasonally. In March, the operating rate rebounded with some differentiation. In March, the production schedule of photovoltaic modules increased, while the high-frequency data of the real estate and automotive industries were weak. The decline in the production schedule of the three major white goods (air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines) narrowed, with production compared to the same period last year decreasing by 6.1%, increasing by 1.6%, and decreasing by 3.4% respectively [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Prices: In February 2026, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract fell 2.95% to 23,835 yuan/ton, and the LME Aluminum 3M slightly increased by 0.19% to 3,141 US dollars/ton. At the beginning of March, due to the Middle East conflict, aluminum supply disruptions increased, and aluminum prices soared [22]. - Term Spread: In February, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded. Against the background of the traditional off - season, the term spread weakened [27]. - Spot Basis: The spot discounts in East China, South China, and Central China narrowed compared to early February. The spot premium/discount in East China was slightly weaker than in previous years [30]. - Regional Premium/Discount Spread: In February, the East China spot strengthened relatively [35]. - LME Premium/Discount: The LME Aluminum Cash/3M spread strengthened, and at the beginning of March, the spot and the 3 - month contract were nearly flat [40]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit: In February, the primary aluminum smelting profit declined and then increased at the beginning of March, reaching a historical high [48]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: As of March 5, aluminum ingot inventory was 1.27 million tons, an increase of about 417,000 tons compared to early February; bonded area inventory was 47,000 tons, an increase of about 4,000 tons; aluminum rod inventory totaled 398,000 tons, an increase of 121,000 tons. The combined inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased by about 538,000 tons compared to early February. LME aluminum inventory was 459,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons, still at a relatively low level in recent years [51][54][57]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite Price: In February, domestic bauxite prices remained stable, while overseas bauxite prices declined slightly [65]. - Alumina Price: In February, domestic alumina prices stabilized, and imported alumina prices continued to be weak [70]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In February, anode prices declined, and thermal coal prices increased month - on - month [75]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In January 2026, alumina monthly production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating rate remained at around 81% [81]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 45.109 million tons. In February, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.1% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. In March, production is expected to increase with a year - on - year growth of about 2.8%. In February 2026, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.372 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.5%. In March, production growth is expected to decline due to the Middle East conflict [84]. - Molten Aluminum Ratio: In February, the aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated and increased. At the beginning of March, the sharp increase in aluminum prices once led to a negative aluminum rod processing fee. In February 2026, the domestic molten aluminum ratio decreased by 7.7 percentage points to 64.4%. In March, as downstream industries resume production, the molten aluminum ratio is expected to increase by 9.2 percentage points [87]. 3.6 Demand Side - Aluminum Products Production: In December 2025, China's aluminum products production was 6.136 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; the cumulative production from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Since February, the aluminum ingot出库 volume has weakened seasonally [94]. - Downstream Operating Rate: In February 2026, China's aluminum rod production was 1.092 million tons, and the cumulative production in the first two months decreased by about 4.5% year - on - year; the operating rate in February was 41.4%, significantly lower than the same period last year. In January 2026, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the operating rate in February was weak; the operating rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increased both year - on - year and month - on - month in January and remained high in February. In January 2026, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the operating rate in February continued to be higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of aluminum rods increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year in January, and the operating situation in February was relatively good. In January 2026, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the operating rate in February decreased seasonally, and is expected to return to normal in March. In February, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys narrowed month - on - month [97][101][105][108]. - Terminal Demand: According to the production schedule report of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in March 2026, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 23.34 million units, a decrease of 6.1% compared to the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 8.43 million units, an increase of 1.6% compared to the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of washing machines was 7.34 million units, a decrease of 3.4% compared to the actual production in the same period last year. The high - frequency data of real estate and automobile sales were weak, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules increased month - on - month in March [112]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - Aluminum Ingot Imports: In February, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports fluctuated, and at the beginning of March, the import loss expanded. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. In December 2025, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., with the import volume from Russia increasing to 76% [117][121]. - Aluminum Products Exports: In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In December 2025, the import volume of recycled aluminum was 194,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.015 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1% [124]. - Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports: In December 2025, China's bauxite imports were 14.673 million tons, with an import ratio of 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to December were 200.532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. In December 2025, China's alumina exports were 206,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to December were 2.548 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.7% [127].