苯乙烯月报：中东地缘冲突升级，波动大涨建议观望-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, and the energy - chemical sector has followed suit. The overall valuation of styrene is neutral, with a decrease in the BZN spread and EB non - integrated plant profits. The supply of pure benzene is relatively abundant, while the supply of styrene is relatively tight. The downstream three - S开工 rate is at a low level but is expected to rebound seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see until the geopolitical conflict subsides [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Policy: The Middle - East geopolitical conflict has escalated, causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices and the energy - chemical sector to follow [11] - Valuation: The monthly increase in styrene (spot > futures > cost), the basis has weakened, the BZN spread has weakened, and the profit of EB non - integrated plants has weakened [11] - Cost: The spot price of pure benzene in East China has increased by 17.90%, the closing price of the active pure benzene contract has increased by 16.03%, the basis has increased by 105 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene operating rate has dropped to the lowest level in the same period. In December, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 5.3716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.87% and a year - on - year increase of 3.78%, mainly from the Middle - East [11] - Supply: The EPS utilization rate is 74.24%, a month - on - month increase of 6.62%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.21%, and a decrease of 5.79% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the production pressure in the fourth quarter has increased month - on - month, and the supply side may be under pressure [11] - Import and Export: The EB import volume last month was 311,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.67% and a year - on - year increase of 65.68% [11] - Demand: The weighted operating rate of the downstream three - S is 30.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.67%; the PS operating rate is 49.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.84%; the EPS operating rate is 12.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 51.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 78.73%; the ABS operating rate is 70.70%, a month - on - month increase of 2.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.14%. In the seasonal off - season, the operating rate is lower than the same period in previous years due to low - profit environment [11] - Inventory: The in - plant inventory of EB is 212,000 tons, a month - on - month inventory accumulation of 36.04% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of 15.49%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports of EB is 175,600 tons, a month - on - month inventory accumulation of 74.55% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of 2.44%. The port inventory of pure benzene has decreased from a high level, and the port inventory of styrene has also decreased [12] - Next - month Forecast: The reference oscillation range for styrene (EB2604) is (8600 - 8900); the reference oscillation range for pure benzene (BZ2604) is (7300 - 7600) [12] - Recommended Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see until the geopolitical conflict subsides [12] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The document provides multiple charts related to the spot and futures market of styrene, including spot price, futures contract price, basis, trading volume, open interest, and various spreads, showing the price trends and market conditions of styrene from 2022 to 2026 [15][20][22] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - The document presents charts of styrene inventory, including port inventory and factory inventory, as well as the profit of different production processes (such as ethylbenzene dehydrogenation process and POSM process). The profit of styrene production has been continuously decreasing. The production process of styrene is mainly ethylbenzene dehydrogenation method, accounting for 85%, followed by PO/SM联产 method (12%) and C8 extraction method (3%). The top ten styrene production enterprises account for 44% of the total production capacity [35][42][45] 3.4 Cost Side - The US gasoline cracking spread has fallen from a high level, and the pure benzene US - South Korea spread may decline. The pure benzene operating rate has rebounded from the bottom. The port inventory of phenol has increased significantly. The downstream demand of pure benzene is mainly for benzene, accounting for 41%, followed by caprolactam (18%), phenol (16%), aniline (13%), adipic acid (7%), and others (5%) [52][60][82] 3.5 Supply Side - The styrene production has been fluctuating at a high level. The document provides charts of styrene daily production, weekly operating rate, import volume, and export volume [91] 3.6 Demand Side - The profits of EPS and PS are at a low level in the same period. The ABS operating rate fluctuates at the bottom with profit. The document also provides information on the inventory of downstream products (PS, EPS, ABS) and the production and sales of household appliances (refrigerators, washing machines) [101][110][129]