地缘危机爆发，带动农产品价格上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the improvement in the export sales of US soybeans, a slight downward adjustment in Brazil's soybean production, and the impact of geopolitical crises, the recent price of CBOT US soybeans has strengthened, driving up the valuation of protein meal. However, the current domestic soybean inventory is relatively high year-on-year, and there is an expectation of a large amount of US soybean purchases in the far - term, which restricts the short - term upward space. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before attempting to buy [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information - AgRural and StoneX have both slightly lowered their forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, with AgRural's estimate at 178 million tons (down 3 million tons from the previous forecast) and StoneX's at 177.8 million tons (down 3.8 million tons) [10]. - From February 19th to 26th, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 36.03 million tons in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 7.86 million tons. The exports to China during the same period were 150,000 tons, and the cumulative exports to China in the current year were 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.13 million tons [10]. - As of February 27th, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress reached 39.66% of the total planting area, 2.38 percentage points higher than the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of February 27th, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 12.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.36 million tons, and the port inventory of sample soybeans was 6.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 million tons [10]. - In January, the forecast for the global soybean production in 2025/26 was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared to the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared to the previous year. The stock - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared to December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared to the previous year [10]. - Fundamental Assessment - The multi - empty scores of factors such as the 5 - 7 spread of US soybeans, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and others are evaluated. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before attempting to buy [11]. - Trading Strategy Suggestion - Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price - The report presents the spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong through charts [21][22]. - Basis of the Main Contract - The basis trends of the May contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are shown in the charts [24][25]. - Inter - monthly Spread - The 5 - 9 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the charts [27][28]. - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread - The spreads between the May and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are shown in the charts [30][31] 3.3 Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress - The planting progress, emergence rate, leaf - falling rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans are presented through charts [36][37][39][40]. - Weather Conditions - The precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared with the same period of the year are shown, along with the weather conditions summary of soybean - producing areas [42][43][45][47]. - US Soybean Export Progress - The current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds are presented through charts [53][54][56][57][59][60]. - China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation - The crushing volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in major oil mills are presented through charts [62][63]. - Brazil's Soybean Export Situation - Brazil's monthly export volume of soybeans and exports to China, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipments to China of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina, are presented through charts [65][66][68][69][71][72] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory - The port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills are presented through charts [76][77]. - Protein Meal Inventory - The inventories of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills are presented through charts [79][80]. - Protein Meal Pressing Profit - The pressing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas are presented through charts [82][83] 3.5 Demand Side - Protein Meal Consumption - The cumulative transactions and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills are presented through charts [86]. - Breeding Profit - The per - head profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers are presented through charts [88][89]