两会政策落地，需求修复仍待验证

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In February 2026, the steel mill profitability rate was around 38%, still in a moderately low range. The cost of raw materials remained resilient, and the immediate profit improvement space for steel mills was limited. Steel mills' production enthusiasm was generally cautious [11]. - In February 2026, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased compared to the same period last year and last month. The decline was mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday, reduced actual production time, partial steel mill maintenance, and stagnant demand [11]. - In February 2026, the apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased significantly compared to the same period last year and last month. The demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival. The rebar demand decline was more obvious, mainly reflecting the seasonal shutdown of the construction industry [11]. - As of February 2026, rebar inventory showed seasonal accumulation but was still relatively low year - on - year, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased year - on - year, and the inventory pressure of plates began to appear [11]. - Overseas, geopolitical conflicts led to concerns about crude oil supply and an increase in global inflation expectations. Domestically, the government's policy combination supported infrastructure and manufacturing investment, providing medium - term support for steel demand. However, real - estate policies mainly focused on risk resolution and stock optimization, with limited incremental pull on steel demand [11]. - Currently, the recovery speed of hot - rolled coil demand is slow, and inventory accumulation is obvious. The core contradiction in the black - series market lies in the verification of the intensity of peak - season demand recovery. Before the real recovery of demand, prices are likely to fluctuate. High - frequency indicators such as construction site resumption rate, building materials trading volume, and cement and building materials daily consumption should be focused on to judge the demand recovery rhythm [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Valuation: In February 2026, the steel mill profitability rate was about 38%, in a moderately low range. The cost of raw materials was resilient, and the immediate profit improvement space for steel mills was limited. Steel mills' production enthusiasm was cautious [11]. - Supply: In February 2026, rebar production was 6.9632 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 690,000 tons (- 9.02%) and a month - on - month decrease of 28.14%. Hot - rolled coil production was 12.3634 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 676,800 tons (- 5.19%) and a month - on - month decrease of 19.35%. The decrease was due to the Spring Festival, reduced production time, partial maintenance, and stagnant demand [11]. - Demand: In February 2026, rebar apparent consumption was 3.7125 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 million tons (- 23.34%) and a month - on - month decrease of 59.98%. Hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 11.3977 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (- 9.34%) and a month - on - month decrease of 26.69%. The demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival [11]. - Inventory: As of February 2026, rebar inventory was 8.006 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 628,400 tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons (+ 3.85%) [11]. - Conclusion: Overseas geopolitical conflicts affected the market, and domestically, policies supported steel demand to some extent. The current core contradiction is the verification of peak - season demand recovery. Before demand recovers, prices are likely to fluctuate. High - frequency indicators should be monitored [11]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts show the price trends and trading volumes of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions, as well as the basis, price differences between contracts, and price differences between different products [23][25][28]. - The price trends of cold - rolled coil, color - coated coil, and galvanized sheet are also presented, along with the price differences between them and hot - rolled coil [64][70][73]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Charts display the disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the gross profits per ton of hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and rebar in different production processes [78][81][83]. - The inventory data of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory, are presented [91][94][103]. 3.4 Cost End - Charts show the ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, daily molten iron production, crude steel daily production, billet prices, rebar - billet price differences, scrap steel prices, and scrap steel consumption [109][112][128]. 3.5 Supply End - The production, production capacity utilization rate, and cumulative year - on - year changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil are presented [131][134][136]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - The apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil are shown [143][146]. - The export and production data of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners are presented [149][151][153]. - The import and export data of steel, rebar, and plates are presented [156][158][161].