citic securities·2026-03-06 12:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on JD US, indicating that the company is facing significant pressure from high base comparisons, particularly in Q4 2025, where total revenue grew only 1.5% year-on-year to 352.3 billion yuan, missing market expectations of a loss of 2.9 billion yuan [4]. Core Insights - JD US's Q4 2025 performance was impacted by a decline in electronic product sales due to reduced trade-in subsidies, which fell by 12% year-on-year. However, daily necessities and platform business segments showed double-digit growth [4][5]. - The company is expected to continue facing high base pressure in Q1 2026, with improvements anticipated in the second half of 2026 as the impact of trade-in subsidies normalizes [4]. - The platform and advertising revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to 30.6 billion yuan, driven by significant growth in third-party GMV and increased advertising demand from self-operated suppliers and third-party merchants [6]. - Logistics and other revenues grew by 23.6% year-on-year to 48.7 billion yuan, supported by the expansion of the food delivery business, which is expected to maintain steady growth [7]. - New business losses remain high at 14.8 billion yuan, with significant increases in losses from JD's international and JD X business segments [8]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - JD US's direct sales revenue decreased by 2.8% year-on-year to 273 billion yuan in Q4 2025, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year's trade-in subsidies [5]. - Daily necessities sales grew by 12% year-on-year, offsetting declines in electronic product sales [5]. Business Segments - The platform and advertising revenue growth is attributed to a doubling of merchant numbers in categories such as clothing, beauty, and outdoor sports, indicating a healthy growth trajectory [6]. - The logistics segment's revenue growth is bolstered by the introduction of food delivery services, which are expected to double in order volume [7]. Financial Metrics - Adjusted EBIT recorded a loss of 3.1 billion yuan, with retail profits declining by 2% year-on-year to 9.8 billion yuan due to increased sales and R&D expenses [8]. - The company anticipates that Q4 2025 will mark the bottom of its performance, with expectations for recovery in 2026 as trade-in subsidies are expected to be more evenly distributed throughout the year [5].