鸡蛋月报：反弹抛空-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg production capacity shows a downward trend, but the pace of reduction has slowed and the extent is less than expected. The short - term absolute supply remains high, and there is a post - poned expectation. The spot price is supported by short - term demand, but lacks the impetus for continuous price increases. The futures market has incorporated some optimistic expectations, but the high premium is likely to be squeezed out near the delivery date. It is recommended to sell on rebounds for the near - term contracts, and pay attention to the support from cost changes for the far - term contracts [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Since February, domestic egg prices have declined significantly. The supply - demand relationship has become looser, market demand has weakened, and the overall circulation has slowed down. With a slight increase in supply, the egg price center has shifted downwards. The breeding profit has turned negative again, the number of culled chickens has decreased, the chicken age has increased, and the enthusiasm for replenishment has risen. The prices of large - sized eggs in major producing areas and major consuming areas have all decreased. In the short term, as egg prices reach a low level, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders may increase, and egg prices have a small room for increase, but the abundant supply limits the increase. It is expected that egg prices will slightly rise in a volatile manner this month [11] - Replenishment and Culling: In February, the number of replenished chickens was 86.6 million, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The replenishment level is not as good as the same period last year, but it has continued to improve month - on - month. The significant month - on - month increase in chicken chick prices also confirms this. Regarding culling, due to the previous low egg prices and continuous breeding losses, the number of culled chickens increased continuously, leading to a decline in chicken age. During the pre - Spring Festival stocking season, the sales were fast, the egg price increase exceeded expectations, and the breeding end returned to profitability. After the Spring Festival, the opening price was higher than expected, which led to a slowdown in the culling of chickens. Currently, the chicken age has stopped falling and rebounded to 502 days, an increase of 18 days from the lowest point [11] - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of February, the inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The absolute level is still high, higher than the previous value and expectations, mainly because the market's sentiment of delaying culling has increased, and the culling of chickens has fallen short of expectations, resulting in an accumulation of supply. Based on the previous replenishment, considering normal culling, it is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.304 billion by July this year, a decline of 3.4%. Although the relative supply will gradually decrease, the absolute supply is still high [11] - Demand Side: As egg prices reach a phased low, downstream traders may start to replenish their stocks one after another, and the sales speed of eggs is expected to accelerate. After the traders' replenishment is completed, the demand for eggs may stabilize [11] - Trading Strategy: For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to sell on rebounds for the 05 - 07 contracts with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 3 - 4 months. The core driving logic includes inventory, consumption, chicken age, and replenishment. For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage after the spot price realizes the expected increase [13] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price Trend: Since February, domestic egg prices have declined significantly. The supply - demand relationship has become looser, and the price center has shifted downwards. The prices of large - sized eggs in major producing areas and major consuming areas have decreased. In the short term, as egg prices reach a low level, there is a small room for price increase, but the abundant supply limits the increase [20] - Basis and Spread: After the Spring Festival, the spot price dropped significantly, and the basis fell to a relatively low level again. The monthly spread was mainly in short - term shock [23] - Culled Chicken Price: As egg prices rebounded from a low level, breeding turned profitable, and farmers were reluctant to sell, leading to an increase in the price of culled chickens and chicken age [26] - Chicken Chick and Egg Chick Price: The month - on - month increase in chicken chick prices also confirms the improvement in the enthusiasm for replenishment [33] 3.3 Supply Side - Egg Chicken Replenishment: In February, the number of replenished chickens was 86.6 million, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% and a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The replenishment level has continued to improve month - on - month [33] - Culled Chicken Out - put: Due to the previous low egg prices and continuous breeding losses, the number of culled chickens increased continuously, leading to a decline in chicken age. After the Spring Festival, the culling of chickens slowed down, and the chicken age has stopped falling and rebounded to 502 days [36] - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of February, the inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. It is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.304 billion by July this year, a decline of 3.4% [38][41] 3.4 Demand Side - As egg prices reach a phased low, downstream traders may start to replenish their stocks, and the sales speed of eggs is expected to accelerate. After the replenishment is completed, the demand for eggs may stabilize [46] 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and has rebounded month - on - month. The breeding profit is neutral, with small losses in the off - season [51] 3.6 Inventory Side - After the Spring Festival, the inventory has increased significantly, but it is neutral compared with the same period seasonally [56]