镍月报：成本支撑与地缘风险交织，预计镍价延续震荡-20260306

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, affected by the double impact of the Spring Festival holiday and the rainy season, the nickel ore trading in the Philippines was light and supply was limited. In Indonesia, the tightening of RKAB mining quotas and the approaching of the rainy season and Ramadan restricted supply growth. Overall, the price of nickel ore remained strong [12]. - The price of high - nickel pig iron in February was strong, with the average price rising to 1085 yuan per nickel point. The upstream price support was strong, and the downstream rigid demand procurement drove the price up [12]. - The nickel intermediate product market in February showed a clear differentiation. The supply of MHP was reduced, and the price and nickel coefficient increased. The supply - demand of high - grade nickel matte was weak, and the nickel coefficient remained flat. The price of sulfur, a key auxiliary material, declined [12]. - In February, the nickel price rose slightly due to supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. The domestic social inventory increased by 7391 tons to 76,000 tons. It is expected that the nickel price will be mainly in a weak shock in the short term. The operating range of Shanghai nickel in March is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton, and the operating range of LME 3M contract is 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton. It is recommended to use high - selling and low - buying interval operations [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Resource end: The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines was limited, and the supply growth in Indonesia was restricted. The overall price of nickel ore remained strong [12]. - Nickel iron: The price of high - nickel pig iron was strong, with the upstream supporting the price and the downstream rigid demand increasing the volume [12]. - Intermediate products: The MHP market was in short supply, and the high - grade nickel matte market was weak. The price of sulfur declined [12]. - Refined nickel: The price rose slightly in February, the domestic social inventory increased, and the price was expected to be weakly volatile. It was recommended to operate in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars per ton for LME 3M contract [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The nickel price was in a high - level wide - range shock in February. It fell sharply at the beginning of the month and then rose slightly due to supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. As of February 27, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 3.46% month - on - month [17]. - The import nickel premium was stable at a low level after the Spring Festival, indicating a loose spot supply [19]. - The nickel iron price rose steadily, the premium of refined nickel over nickel iron returned to normal, and the nickel sulfate price fluctuated with the nickel price [22]. 3. Cost Side - The domestic nickel ore port inventory continued to decline, and the nickel ore price remained strong. The price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia rose to 70.24 US dollars per ton, and the price of wet - process ore rose to 27.5 US dollars per ton [27][30]. - In January, the nickel iron output in Indonesia decreased by 15,000 tons month - on - month to 144,000 tons due to the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over nickel iron [33]. - In January, due to the sharp increase in MHP price and the high premium of high - grade nickel matte over nickel iron, the output of MHP and high - grade nickel matte in Indonesia increased significantly [37]. - The intermediate product coefficient price remained at a high level [40][42]. 4. Refined Nickel - In January 2026, the national refined nickel output was 65,000 tons, an increase of 4417 tons compared with December 2025 [47]. - In January 2026, the domestic stainless steel output was 3.032 million tons, an increase of 203,700 tons compared with November, and the inventory level rebounded slightly from a low level [50]. - Global refined nickel inventory continued to increase, mainly in domestic social inventory. As of February 27, the global refined nickel visible inventory was 364,000 tons, an increase of 9073 tons compared with the same period last month [56]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - The supply of nickel sulfate remained stable. The domestic nickel sulfate output was relatively stable, and the import volume increased slightly [61][63]. - The production profit rate of nickel sulfate fluctuated around the break - even point [66]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, the global primary nickel supply was generally on the rise, and the demand also showed an upward trend. There was a supply surplus in each period, and the surplus showed an increasing trend [69]. - The supply - demand gap of global refined nickel also showed an increasing trend in general, and the proportion of the supply - demand gap in the overall supply - demand situation was relatively large [69]. - The global refined nickel visible inventory continued to increase [69].