Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In February, the lead price declined and then stabilized. Although there was significant inventory accumulation of lead ingots both at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the declining smelting profit of smelting enterprises may narrow the surplus of lead ingots. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term, and is expected to gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - From February 2nd to March 4th, the Shanghai lead weighted index fell 0.71% to 16,835 yuan/ton, and the total position of Shanghai lead increased slightly by 0.66 million lots to 11.15 million lots. The LME lead 3M contract fell 2.71% to 1,941 US dollars/ton, and the position of the LME lead 3M contract remained basically flat at 17.17 million lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,525 yuan/ton, the refined scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons. As of March 5th, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 67,200 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to March 2nd. The domestic primary basis was -125 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was -80 yuan/ton. Overseas structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 5,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -48.23 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -132.5 US dollars/ton. Cross - market structure: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.251, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 569.79 yuan/ton [11]. - Industrial data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 52,000 tons, the factory inventory was 487,000 tons, equivalent to 31.9 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was -145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrates was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 51.47%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 48,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 104,000 tons, the recycled smelting start - up rate was 20.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 29.26% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,425,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December, the net import of silver concentrates was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,931,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6% [15]. - In February 2026, China's lead concentrate output was 89,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -9.7% and a month - on - month change of -29.4%. From January to February, the total lead concentrate output was 216,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [17]. - In December 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 3,285,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In December 2025, the overseas lead ore output was 275,900 tons, a year - on - year change of -1.15% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to December, the total lead ore output was 2,958,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -1.16% [19]. - The port inventory of lead concentrates was 52,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 487,000 tons, equivalent to 31.9 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was -145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrates was 250 yuan/metal ton, with a slight increase in lead concentrate TC [21][23]. - The primary smelting start - up rate was 51.47%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 48,000 tons. In February 2025, China's primary lead output was 283,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of -17.1%. From January to February, the total primary lead ingot output was 626,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1% [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 104,000 tons. The recycled smelting start - up rate was 20.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,000 tons. In February 2025, China's recycled lead output was 217,600 tons, a year - on - year change of -2.9% and a month - on - month change of -40.4%. From January to February, the total recycled lead ingot output was 582,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.9% [31][33]. - In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was -28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was -146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -22.13%. In December, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of -1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 7,956,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 29.3%. In December 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of -0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38]. - In December 2025, the net export quantity of lead - containing batteries was 16.649 million, a year - on - year change of -35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million, and the cumulative net export year - on - year change was -13.06% [41]. - In January 2026, the finished product inventory of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 21.5 days to 23.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 43.6 days to 40.74 days [43]. - In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. The automobile sector's contribution to lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. With the increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles, some large enterprises use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, but the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the development of communication technology has driven the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - In December 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 4,000 tons, and from January to December, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 12,400 tons [61]. - In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons, and from January to November, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 171,400 tons [64]. 6. Price Outlook - Domestic structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons. As of March 5th, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 67,200 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to March 2nd. The domestic primary basis was -125 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was -80 yuan/ton [69]. - Overseas structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 5,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -48.23 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -132.5 US dollars/ton [71]. - Cross - market structure: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.251, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 569.79 yuan/ton [74]. - The net short position of LME lead investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased [77].
铅月报：冶炼开工下滑，累库速率放缓-20260306
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-06 12:49