铁合金月报：关注商品情绪向多头偏移背景下铁合金延续反弹机会-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rebounded. The short - term upward targets for manganese silicon are 6200 yuan/ton and 6450 yuan/ton, and for ferrosilicon are 5900 yuan/ton and 6100 yuan/ton. The short - term market sentiment is driven by the significant escalation of the US - Iran conflict, which has led to a shift in commodity sentiment towards the long side. It is not advisable to take short - side operations in the short term. Instead, it is recommended to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and highly elastic varieties such as manganese silicon and ferrosilicon. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push factors on the manganese silicon side and supply - contraction factors on the ferrosilicon side [16][19][21]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review - In February, the weighted index of manganese silicon futures rebounded from the bottom, with a monthly increase of 162 yuan/ton or +2.76%. Last week, the price remained volatile at a high level after the rebound, with a weekly increase of 106 yuan/ton or +1.76%. The price increase was mainly driven by market speculation due to rumors of rising power costs in South Africa and the imposition of an ecological export tariff on manganese ore. The US - Iran conflict also supported the price. Technically, the price is in a bullish pattern [16]. - In February, the weighted index of ferrosilicon futures also rebounded from the bottom, with a monthly increase of 94 yuan/ton or +1.66%. Last week, the price continued to rebound, with a weekly increase of 146 yuan/ton or +2.54%. The price increase was due to the relatively good fundamentals of ferrosilicon and the spill - over of the bullish sentiment from manganese silicon and the overall commodity market [19]. - Monthly Summary - Spot and Futures Prices: As of March 5, 2026, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. The futures price of the main contract (SM605) was 6092 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was - 2 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton month - on - month. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 6150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton month - on - month. The futures price of the main contract (SF605) was 5828 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 322 yuan/ton, up 198 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 5.24% [20]. - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 467 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was - 595 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Guangxi, it was - 580 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton month - on - month. The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 274 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was - 160 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Qinghai, it was - 747 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [20]. - Cost: The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6317 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was 6355 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Guangxi, it was 6480 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton month - on - month. The estimated production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5704 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was 5560 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; in Qinghai, it was 6147 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [20]. - Supply: The weekly output of manganese silicon was 19.59 tons, down 0.16 tons week - on - week. In February 2026, the output of manganese silicon was 77.36 tons, down 8.04 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 162.76 tons, down 6.32 tons or - 3.74% year - on - year. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.65 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, remaining at a low level in the same period. In February 2026, the output of ferrosilicon was 39.39 tons, down 4.33 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 83.1 tons, down 8.82 tons or - 9.60% year - on - year [20]. - Demand: The weekly output of rebar was 173.31 tons, up 8.21 tons week - on - week. The daily average hot metal output was 227.59 tons, down 5.69 tons week - on - week. In February 2026, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 8.07 tons, down 0.52 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 16.66 tons, up 8.07 tons or +20.64% year - on - year. In 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon was 40.09 tons, down 2.79 tons or - 6.50% year - on - year [20][21]. - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 63.65 tons, down 0.16 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period. The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 10.58 tons, up 1.76 tons month - on - month, remaining at a low level in the same period [20]. - Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, the significant escalation of the US - Iran conflict has led to a shift in commodity sentiment towards the long side. It is recommended to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and highly elastic varieties, such as manganese silicon and ferrosilicon. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push factors on the manganese silicon side and supply - contraction factors on the ferrosilicon side. It is also recommended to pay attention to possible restrictive measures on manganese ore exports in South Africa and Gabon and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [21]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Manganese Silicon Basis: As of March 5, 2026, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. The futures price of the main contract (SM605) was 6092 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was - 2 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton month - on - month, at a neutral level in historical statistics [26]. - Ferrosilicon Basis: As of March 5, 2026, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 6150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton month - on - month. The futures price of the main contract (SF605) was 5828 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 322 yuan/ton, up 198 yuan/ton month - on - month, at a high level in historical statistics [29]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Manganese Silicon Production Profit: As of March 5, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon (excluding depreciation and other expenses) remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 467 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was - 595 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Guangxi, it was - 580 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton month - on - month [34]. - Manganese Silicon Production Cost - Raw Material Prices: As of March 5, 2026, the price of South African manganese ore was 38.7 yuan/ton - degree, up 1.7 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month; the price of Australian manganese ore was 43 yuan/ton - degree, up 1 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month; the price of Gabonese manganese ore was 43.8 yuan/ton - degree, up 1 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month. The price of off - grade metallurgical coke was 1185 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [37]. - Import Volume: In December, the import volume of manganese ore was 327.4 tons, up 58 tons month - on - month and 72.3 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 3284.2 tons, up 356 tons or +12.17% year - on - year [40]. - Port Inventory: As of February 27, 2026, the port inventory of manganese ore continued to decline, reaching 495.4 tons, up 65.3 tons month - on - month. The port inventory of Australian manganese ore was 83.0 tons, up 4.8 tons month - on - month. The port inventory of high - grade manganese ore was 155.6 tons, up 19.9 tons month - on - month [43][46]. - Power Price and Cost: As of March 5, 2026, the electricity price in Guangxi increased by 0.06 yuan/kWh month - on - month, while the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia remained unchanged. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6317 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was 6355 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Guangxi, it was 6480 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton month - on - month [49]. - Ferrosilicon Production Profit: As of March 5, 2026, the estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 274 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was - 160 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Qinghai, it was - 747 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [52]. - Ferrosilicon Production Cost - Raw Material Prices: As of March 5, 2026, the price of silica in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The price of small - sized semi - coke was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [55]. - Power Price and Cost: As of March 5, 2026, the electricity price in the main production areas remained unchanged. The estimated production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5704 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; in Ningxia, it was 5560 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; in Qinghai, it was 6147 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [58]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply - Manganese Silicon Total Output: As of March 5, 2026, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 19.59 tons, down 0.16 tons week - on - week. In February 2026, the output of manganese silicon was 77.36 tons, down 8.04 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 162.76 tons, down 6.32 tons or - 3.74% year - on - year [63]. - Manganese Silicon Output in Main Production Areas: The output and operating rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not further elaborated in the text [65][67][70]. - Ferrosilicon Total Output: As of March 5, 2026, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.65 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, remaining at a low level in the same period. In February 2026, the output of ferrosilicon was 39.39 tons, down 4.33 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 83.1 tons, down 8.82 tons or - 9.60% year - on - year [74]. - Ferrosilicon Output in Main Production Areas: The output and output proportion in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Gansu, and other areas are presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not further elaborated in the text [75]. - Demand - HeSteel Tendering: In January 2026, the tender volume of manganese silicon by HeSteel Group was 17,000 tons, up 2300 tons month - on - month, and the tender price was 5920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. In February 2026, the tender volume of 75B ferrosilicon alloy by HeSteel Group was 2150 tons, down 1163 tons month - on - month and up 690 tons year - on - year, and the tender price was 5760 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [79]. - Manganese Silicon Apparent Consumption and Rebar Output: As of March 5, 2026, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 11.12 tons, up 0.1 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 173.31 tons, up 8.21 tons week - on - week [82]. - Hot Metal Output and Crude Steel Output: As of March 5, 2026, the daily average hot metal output was 227.59 tons, down 5.69 tons week - on - week. In December 2025, the crude steel output in China was 68.18 million tons, down 1.72 million tons month - on - month and 7.82 million tons year - on - year. The cumulative crude steel output from January to December was 950 million tons, down 41.22 million tons or - 4.16% year - on - year [84]. - Magnesium Metal: In February 2026, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 8.07 tons, down 0.52 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 16.66 tons, up 8.07 tons or +20.64% year - on - year. As of March 5, 2026, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month [90]. - Ferrosilicon Export: In 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon was 40.09 tons, down 2.79 tons or - 6.50% year - on - year. As of March 5, 2026, the estimated export profit of ferrosilicon was - 86 yuan/ton, remaining at a low level in the same period [93]. 3.5 Inventory - Manganese Silicon Visible Inventory: As of March 5, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 63.65 tons, down 0.16 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 38.73 tons, down 1.1 tons month - on - month. In February,