2026年1-2月宏观经济预测报告：出口或仍为经济增速主要贡献

Economic Performance - The manufacturing PMI for February is predicted to be 49, indicating a contraction in production[4] - Industrial value added is expected to grow by approximately 5.2% year-on-year for January-February[7] - Retail sales growth is forecasted at about 2.5% year-on-year for January-February[7] Demand and Consumption - During the Spring Festival, domestic travel reached 596 million trips, with total spending of 803.48 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from 2025[6] - The box office revenue for the Spring Festival was 5.752 billion yuan, with 120 million viewers, showing a relatively average performance compared to previous years[6] - Daily transaction volume during the Spring Festival reached 393.02 billion transactions, amounting to 13.12 trillion yuan, with increases of 37.45% and 19.26% respectively compared to 2025[6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by approximately 2% year-on-year for January-February, with real estate being a major drag[7] - New housing sales in 30 major cities fell by over 20% year-on-year in January-February, indicating continued weakness in the real estate sector[7] - Infrastructure investment is likely to maintain a steady pace, while manufacturing investment shows resilience due to equipment upgrades and high-tech expansions[7] Inflation and Prices - CPI is projected to rise by 1.2% year-on-year in February, driven by increased food prices during the Spring Festival[14] - PPI is expected to decline by 1.2% year-on-year, influenced by rising international oil prices and structural supply-demand tensions[15] Fiscal Policy - General public budget revenue is anticipated to grow by 0.5% year-on-year for January-February, supported by a low base from previous years[19] - General public budget expenditure is expected to increase by 0.8% year-on-year, reflecting proactive fiscal measures[19]