贵金属月报：地缘风险与宏观共振，金价承压但韧性仍存-20260306

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current gold price is affected by multiple factors, with the core logic centered around geopolitical situations and macro - policies. Tensions in the Middle East and the potential for inflation support the gold price, while strong US economic data, cautious signals from the Fed, and profit - taking pressure the price. However, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East still provide strong support for the gold price [11]. - Silver generally follows the fluctuations of gold. The significant decline in COMEX registered silver inventory, continuous outflow of inventory from major global markets, and high physical investment demand limit the downside risk of silver prices. The reduction of initial margins for gold and silver futures by CME may attract capital inflows. The report suggests a bullish strategy, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 1130 - 1200 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: This month, Shanghai gold rose 4.65% to 1140.80 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 15.64% to 21740.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 2.10% to 5093.30 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 6.44% to 82.52 US dollars/ounce; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.13%, and the US dollar index rose 2.23% to 99.04 [11]. - Influencing Factors: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support gold as a traditional safe - haven and inflation - hedging asset. However, strong US economic data and cautious Fed signals weaken the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts, pushing up the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, and some funds take profits at high prices, which together put pressure on the gold price. For silver, the significant decline in COMEX registered silver inventory and high physical investment demand limit its downside risk [11]. - Strategy Suggestion: Adopt a bullish strategy, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 1130 - 1200 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3.2 Gold Monthly Review - Price and Volume Data: As of March 6, Shanghai gold rose 4.65% this month, with a high of 1197.22 yuan/gram and a low of 1090.12 yuan/gram; COMEX gold rose 2.10%, with a high of 5335.90 US dollars/ounce and a low of 4941.40 US dollars/ounce [20][22]. - Inventory: As of this Friday, the COMEX gold inventory was 1036.40 tons [33]. - Funding: As of the latest report period this month, the net long position of COMEX gold managed funds was 96,000 lots, with long positions of 121,200 lots and short positions of 25,300 lots; the total holdings of major foreign gold ETF funds were 1729.37 tons [40][43]. 3.3 Silver Monthly Review - Price and Volume Data: As of March 6, Shanghai silver rose 15.64% this month, with a high of 23029.00 yuan/kilogram and a low of 18799.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX silver rose 6.44%, with a high of 94.39 US dollars/ounce and a low of 75.01 US dollars/ounce [45][49]. - Inventory: As of this Friday, the COMEX silver inventory was 11207.60 tons [57]. - Funding: As of the latest report period this month, the net position of COMEX silver managed funds was 8523 lots, with long positions of 13365 lots and short positions of 4842 lots; the total holdings of major foreign silver ETF funds were 26175.88 tons [61][64]. 3.4 US Interest Rates and Liquidity - Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: The total assets of the Federal Reserve increased by 15097 million US dollars this week. On the asset side, the holding of securities increased by 14656 million US dollars; on the liability side, the total liabilities increased by 15052 million US dollars [67]. - Federal Reserve Interest Rates: The report presents the trends of the Federal Reserve's main interest rates, the 10Y - 1Y term premium, etc. [72]. 3.5 US Macroeconomic Data - GDP: The report shows the year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter growth rates of the US GDP [76]. - CPI: It presents the trends of the US CPI, core CPI, and the year - on - year contribution of CPI sub - items [79]. - PPI: It shows the trends of the US PPI, core PPI, and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes of PPI sub - items [82]. - PMI: It presents the trends of the US ISM - PMI manufacturing index and its sub - items [84]. - Housing: It shows the situation of new private housing construction, new housing sales, and the year - on - year change of the S&P/CS housing price index in the US [87]. - Employment: It shows the new non - farm employment and unemployment rate in the US, as well as the new non - farm employment sub - items [89]. - Personal Income: It presents the average hourly wage of US non - farm enterprise employees and the year - on - year change of personal disposable income [93]. 3.6 Global Liquidity Tracking - Interest Rates of Major Economies: It shows the interest rates of major economies and their weekly changes [98][101]. - Exchange Rates of Major Economies: It shows the weekly changes of the exchange rates of major economies against the RMB and the US dollar [104]. - Global Stock Indexes: It shows the weekly changes of global stock indexes, including those of developed and developing countries, as well as the weekly changes of US and European stock market sectors [107][110].