农林牧渔行业专题：亏损加剧叠加政策调控，猪价上行周期可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The pig farming industry is currently in a downward price cycle, but a price increase cycle is expected to begin in late 2026 due to capacity reduction and stricter production policies [5][6][7] - The average weight of pigs being sold has been higher than in previous years, contributing to lower prices in 2025 [5][32] - The report highlights a significant reduction in the breeding sow inventory target, which is expected to support the upcoming price increase cycle [7][48] Summary by Sections Current Price Cycle - The pig farming industry has experienced seven complete cycles from January 1995 to October 2022, with the current cycle being the eighth, which is currently in a downward phase [5][18] - The maximum price increase in the previous cycle was 251.5% from May 2018 to March 2022, primarily due to the African swine fever outbreak [5][18] Capacity Reduction and Policy Changes - The industry is expected to enter a capacity reduction phase starting in July 2025, with a cumulative reduction of 2% by December 2025 [6][41] - A recent meeting by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture emphasized stricter control over breeding sow inventory, potentially reducing it to around 36.5 million heads, a decrease of 7.9% [7][48] Cost Trends and Company Performance - In 2025, the cost of pig farming for listed companies continued to decline, with significant differences in costs among companies [8][51] - Major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs have maintained competitive costs, with Muyuan's cost dropping to 11.3 yuan/kg by October 2025 [51] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Muyuan, Wens, and Lihua, while also suggesting attention to Shennong Group and Dekang Agriculture [9][11]