2月美国非农就业数据点评：就业走弱，薪资持稳

Employment Data - In February, the U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, significantly below the expected increase of 55,000, marking the largest decline since November 2025[4] - The private sector also saw a decline, with January's employment revised to -86,000, and the average employment increase over the last three months dropped to 41,000, down from 94,000[4] Unemployment and Labor Participation - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, exceeding both the previous value and the expected 4.3%[12] - The labor participation rate fell to 62%, the lowest since 2022, significantly below the expected 62.5%[12] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings remained flat at 0.4% month-on-month, better than the expected 0.3%, while year-on-year growth rose to 3.8%, slightly above the expected 3.7%[20] - The average hourly wage growth has stabilized within the range of 3.7%-3.9% since the second half of 2025, indicating resilience at the bottom[20] Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut before June increased from 33.3% to 50.4%[27] - U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to a low of 4.11% before recovering to 4.18%[27] Sector Performance - Employment growth was concentrated in a few sectors, with finance (+10,000), other services (+8,000), and wholesale trade (+6,000) contributing positively, while education and healthcare saw a decline of 34,000 due to strikes[8]