格林大华期货棉花月报-20260307

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, the cotton supply - demand pattern is tightening. The 2026/27 global cotton production is expected to be 25.26 million tons, a 3.2% year - on - year decrease, while consumption is expected to reach 26.15 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase, and ending stocks will be 15.5 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year decrease. This shift from a loose to a supply - shortfall pattern supports long - term cotton prices. Brazilian cotton production is expected to decline significantly, further tightening the global supply. US cotton demand shows signs of recovery [9][30]. - Domestically, after the Spring Festival, the textile industry's resumption of work accelerated, but the rise in cotton and yarn prices has curbed restocking. New - season cotton planting area is expected to be reduced, while demand is supported by capacity expansion. The market is expected to remain in a tight - balance state, but there are risks of price corrections due to delayed downstream resumption and widened price differentials [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Trends - International cotton spot weekly average prices declined more than domestic ones, and the price differential between domestic and international cotton slightly widened. ICE cotton futures weekly average price was 6 cents per pound, up 1.28 cents per pound from the previous week. The Cotlook A index weekly average price was 75.85 cents per pound, up 2.54 cents per pound from the previous week. The China Cotton Price Index CC Index3128B weekly average price was 16,448 yuan per ton, up 414 yuan per ton from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand (2026/27) - Global cotton production is expected to be 25.26 million tons, a 3.2% year - on - year decrease; consumption is expected to be 26.15 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase; exports are expected to be 9.58 million tons, a 0.7% year - on - year increase; ending stocks will be 15.5 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year decrease [9][10]. 3.3 US Cotton Supply and Demand (2025/26) - The planting area is 56.345 million mu, and the harvested area is 47.376 million mu, both unchanged from the previous month. The abandonment rate remains at 15.9%. The yield per mu is expected to be 64 kg, and the production is expected to be 3.03 million tons. Consumption is expected to be 348,000 tons, with no significant adjustment. Exports are expected to be 2.613 million tons, a decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous month. Ending stocks increase by 44,000 tons to 958,000 tons [13][14]. 3.4 Cotton Inspection - As of February 26, 2026, the cumulative graded inspection of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 3.0387 million tons, with 81.7% of the lint meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. As of March 3, 2026, the notarized inspection of domestic cotton in the 2025 season was 7.4843 million tons [15][16]. 3.5 Cotton and Yarn Imports - In December 2025, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a 51.3% month - on - month increase and a 31.0% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 1.07 million tons, a 59.1% year - on - year decrease. In the 2025/26 season (from September 2025 to December 2025), the cumulative cotton imports were 490,000 tons, a 2.1% year - on - year increase. In December 2025, China's yarn imports were 170,000 tons, an 11.9% year - on - year increase and a 15.1% month - on - month increase. In 2025, the cumulative yarn imports were 1.5 million tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase. In the 2025/26 season, the cumulative yarn imports were about 590,000 tons, an 18% year - on - year increase [17][19]. 3.6 Cotton Inventory - As of February 2026, China's domestic commercial cotton inventory was 5.5037 million tons, a decrease of 285,000 tons from the previous month, at the historical average level. The industrial cotton inventory was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 28,200 tons from the previous month, at a relatively high historical level [21]. 3.7 US Cotton Exports - As of February 19, 2026, the cumulative net signed exports of US cotton in the 2025/26 season were 2.046 million tons, reaching 78.30% of the annual expected exports. The cumulative shipments were 1.036 million tons, with a shipment rate of 50.62%. China has signed to import 98,000 tons of US cotton, accounting for 4.81% of the signed US cotton, and has shipped 47,000 tons [23]. 3.8 US Retail Sales - In December 2025, the retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories (seasonally adjusted) were $27.237 billion, a 5.05% year - on - year increase and a 0.71% month - on - month decrease. In 2025, the cumulative retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories were $319.066 billion, a 5.62% year - on - year increase [24]. 3.9 Yarn Market - The spot yarn price is generally stable. Rising cotton prices have put some yarn mills in cost - price inversion. The开机 rate of yarn mills in different regions is basically stable. The prices of different yarn varieties are in a certain range [26].