2026年2月美国非农数据点评：罢工和暴雪拖累2月非农，美联储陷入滞涨困境

Employment Data - In February 2026, the U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, significantly below the expected increase of 59,000 and revised from a previous value of 126,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3% and unchanged from the previous value[1] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% and the previous increase of 3.7%[1] Contributing Factors - The decline in non-farm employment was primarily due to strikes in the healthcare sector, particularly affecting the California and Hawaii Kaiser Permanente medical group, which involved approximately 31,000 workers[2] - Severe winter storms at the end of February led to emergency declarations in seven states, impacting employment in construction and offline services[2] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.0%, down from 62.1% in the previous month, indicating a decrease in employment willingness among middle-aged groups[4] - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 209,000, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between stagnation and inflation, with uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts in the short term[5] - Market expectations indicate a 42.3% probability of a rate cut in September 2026, with a 95.5% chance of no rate cut in March 2026[5]