大类资产月度策略（2026.3）：政策定调寻主线，资产博弈迎变阵-20260307

Group 1 - The report indicates a sustained "wide monetary + wide credit" environment, with China's new social financing in January reaching 72,208 billion yuan, exceeding expectations, and new RMB loans at 47,100 billion yuan, also above forecasts, suggesting a low risk of tightening funds [1][13] - The asset price outlook suggests a convergence of styles, with a focus on low valuation and high-performance stocks as external uncertainties rise, indicating a shift from high-risk trading to assets with higher safety margins [2][19] - The report highlights the performance of various asset classes in February, with the stock market showing differentiation, the bond market strengthening, and commodities experiencing volatility, while the RMB appreciated against the USD [30][41] Group 2 - The report provides quantitative asset allocation recommendations, suggesting an aggressive allocation of 10% in stocks, 45% in bonds, 15% in oil, and 30% in gold under an optimistic scenario, while a conservative scenario suggests 10% in stocks, 85% in bonds, 1.7% in oil, and 3.3% in gold [5][22] - The report notes that the stock-bond valuation ratio has decreased, indicating a reduced attractiveness of stocks relative to bonds, with the stock risk premium showing a historical low [44][47] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and market sentiment through various indices, which can help investors make informed decisions regarding asset allocation [53][55]