申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(26/03/02-26/03/07)：从第一阶段上行向区间震荡过渡

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the short-term market dynamics are influenced by the US-Iran conflict and "HALO trading," but these factors are not expected to extend into the medium term. The market is currently in a high-intensity phase of geopolitical conflict, which may lead to short-term volatility without necessitating an adjustment of medium-term outlooks [5][7][9] - The report maintains a "two-phase upward market" outlook for 2026, indicating that the market is transitioning from the "first phase of upward movement" to a "consolidation phase." This transition is characterized by a focus on performance and time to digest valuations, as well as cyclical improvements and trends in the industry [7][8][9] - The report suggests that the current market is experiencing a shift towards a consolidation phase, with static valuations reaching historical highs. This shift is expected to last for 1-2 quarters, as the market awaits performance improvements and conditions for a migration towards equity investments [8][9] Group 2 - The report recommends focusing on cyclical sectors, particularly basic chemicals, which may see price increases concentrated in March-April. In the technology sector, attention is directed towards inflation-related opportunities, especially with the upcoming NVIDIA GTC conference [9][10] - The medium-term structural recommendation remains unchanged, emphasizing "growth technology" and "cyclical alpha." Key areas of focus include overseas computing power chains, AI applications, semiconductors, robotics, commercial aerospace, and energy storage [10] - The report highlights that the strategic resources sector may see a revaluation post-US-Iran conflict, with long-term price centers for oil and gas likely to be higher than before. This indicates a potential for increased investment opportunities in strategic resources [9][10]