每周高频跟踪 20260307：地缘因素影响，通胀预期升温-20260307

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - In the first week of March, after the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work accelerated further. However, the low - temperature and snowy weather in the north affected the start - up and resumption of work. The labor attendance rate was still strong year - on - year, indicating that major project investments in March might be building up momentum [3][32]. - In terms of inflation, food prices continued to decline after the Spring Festival. In terms of exports, due to geopolitical factors, fuel prices rose significantly, shipping capacity was affected, and container shipping prices generally increased significantly. In terms of investment, the social inventory of rebar continued to accumulate, the price weakened slightly, the downstream procurement demand was released orderly, and the physical work volume indicators had not yet stabilized significantly. In the real estate sector, the transactions of new and second - hand houses continued to rise, but the year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar decreased [3][32]. - For the bond market, the peak season starts in March. Due to the concentrated impact of work resumption this month and the possible sprint effect of the economy at the end of the quarter, an improvement in high - frequency data can be expected. This week, under the influence of the escalation of the US - Iran situation, energy prices such as crude oil rose significantly, intensifying market concerns about inflation. The cost of export container shipping prices also began to rise, and attention should be paid to the short - term suppression and fluctuations of shipping price changes on export demand. Domestically, the economic targets and policy combinations of the Two Sessions basically met expectations, the target growth rate was adjusted to a more neutral and reasonable range, and the probability of marginal stimulus decreased relatively. In addition, the PMI in February announced this week further declined due to the Spring Festival holiday, but it should be noted that in years when the Spring Festival falls in the middle or late February, the PMI in March often rebounds significantly, and the price sub - item last month was not weak. Short - term attention should continue to be paid to the evolution of inflation expectations [3][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory (1) Inflation - related: Food prices are accelerating downward - The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 3.9% week - on - week, and the vegetable price decreased by 4.1% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, food prices are accelerating downward. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 2.2% and 2.5% respectively week - on - week [8]. (2) Import and export - related: Geopolitical situation escalates, and freight rates are accelerating upward - The comprehensive container shipping index accelerated upward due to geopolitical factors. This week, the CCFI index increased by 0.9% week - on - week, and the SCFI increased by 11.7% week - on - week, showing an accelerating upward trend. The export container shipping market was affected by the sharp escalation of the geopolitical situation, and the freight rates of relevant routes fluctuated more severely, with the comprehensive index rising. Among them, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to the basic ports in the Mediterranean increased by 2.4% week - on - week, and the freight rates to the West and East coasts of the United States increased by 4.5% and 1.0% respectively [9]. - In terms of port transportation volume, from February 21st to March 1st, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 6.4% and 25.2% respectively week - on - week, and the year - on - year increase for a single week was 6.3% and - 6.4% respectively. Overall, the resumption of work this year is relatively fast, and the year - on - year performance is still not weak under the influence of the Spring Festival misalignment [9]. - The BDI and CDFI indices accelerated upward. Affected by the US - Iran conflict, international fuel prices rose significantly, the ship operating cost increased, driving the daily rent and freight rates in the international dry bulk shipping market to rise significantly across the board. The BDI and CDFI indices increased by 1.8% and 8.1% respectively week - on - week [9]. (3) Industry - related: The resumption of work is accelerating further - Coal prices continued to rise. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.9% week - on - week, with the same increase as the previous week. The low - temperature and snowy weather in the north led to a temporary rebound in the residential heating electricity load. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work and production in various places advanced, and the downstream replenishment and industrial electricity demand increased, supporting the continued rise of coal prices [15]. - The price of rebar weakened marginally. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the social inventory of rebar increased by 12.4% week - on - week, continuing to accumulate at a relatively fast pace. This week, the resumption of work at construction sites accelerated, and terminal procurement gradually recovered [15]. - The asphalt production rate rebounded slightly. This week, the asphalt plant production rate increased by 1.9 percentage points week - on - week to 23.3%, but it was still at a seasonal low [15]. - The copper price decreased slightly. This week, the average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals market decreased by 0.4% week - on - week. The continued escalation of the US - Iran conflict led to a risk of energy supply disruption, suppressing market risk appetite and increasing risk - aversion sentiment, causing the copper price to decline week - on - week [18]. - The glass price remained stable, and downstream demand still needed to be repaired. This week, the glass market price was basically stable, the production and sales performance was average, the inventory in various places was still accumulating, the downstream procurement demand had not fully recovered, and the upward momentum of the spot price was limited. The South China glass futures price decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, also affected by risk sentiment [18]. (4) Investment - related: Real estate transactions continue to heat up - The cement price continued to decline. This week, the cement price index decreased by 0.2% compared with before the Spring Festival, continuing the downward trend. As of March 4th (the 16th day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of construction sites across the country was 23.5%, the same as the year - on - year in the lunar calendar, and the labor attendance rate was 29.7%, 2.2 percentage points higher than the year - on - year in the lunar calendar. Among them, the year - on - year in the lunar calendar for real estate and non - real estate projects was 1.5 percentage points higher and 0.3 percentage points lower respectively. Overall, the resumption of work this week did not show a significant year - on - year improvement, which might be related to the suspension of some projects due to the snowy weather in the north. However, the labor attendance rate continued to improve, mainly supported by funds for projects such as guaranteed housing delivery, water conservancy, and high - speed railways [19][22]. - The transactions of new houses continued to recover seasonally, but the year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar narrowed. This week (as of Friday), the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities increased by 65.6% week - on - week. Aligned with the Spring Festival, as of March 6th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities (7 - day rolling sum) was 1.2896 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%, and the year - on - year increase narrowed [27]. - The transactions of second - hand houses increased year - on - year at a relatively fast pace. This week (as of Friday), the transaction area of second - hand houses in 17 cities increased by 82% year - on - year. Aligned with the Spring Festival, as of March 6th, the transaction area of second - hand houses (7 - day rolling sum) was 115,000 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 23.3%, generally remaining strong [27]. (5) Consumption: The US - Iran conflict escalates, and oil prices are accelerating upward - The subway passenger volume in 25 cities accelerated its recovery. From last Saturday to this Friday, the average daily subway passenger volume in 25 cities was 3.163 million person - times, a week - on - week increase of 19.2%. The resumption of work accelerated further around the Lantern Festival. According to the Baidu Migration Scale Index, as of March 6th, the year - on - year travel decreased by 1.6%. The misalignment of the resumption of work rhythm after the holiday led to a high base, and the year - on - year performance began to weaken [30]. - Affected by the geopolitical situation, international oil prices continued to rise. As of March 6th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 27.9% and 35.6% respectively week - on - week compared with last Friday, showing an accelerating upward trend. The continued escalation of the US - Iran situation led to a decrease in the passage capacity of the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the uncertainty of global energy supply and pushing up oil prices to strengthen rapidly [30].