流动性跟踪：存单利率或已到阶段低位

Liquidity Overview - In the first week of March, the liquidity environment turned loose, with a net withdrawal of 1.56 trillion yuan, including a net withdrawal of 1.36 trillion yuan from reverse repos[1] - The overnight rate (R001) decreased to 1.36% and the 7-day rate (R007) to 1.51%, but R001 rebounded to 1.39% by Friday due to cumulative liquidity pressure[1][14] Certificate of Deposit (CD) Trends - The issuance rate for 1-year CDs has dropped to 1.55-1.56%, the lowest since January 2025, down from a range of 1.58%-1.60% over the past month[1][14] - The net issuance of CDs in the first week of March was 133.4 billion yuan, indicating a shift in supply dynamics as banks prepare for the upcoming quarter-end[2][15] Market Outlook - The liquidity is expected to remain loose in the coming week (March 9-13), with R001 projected to stay around 1.35% and R007 slightly above the OMO by 5-10 basis points[3][20] - The upcoming tax period is anticipated to have a limited impact on liquidity, with historical average tax payments around 1.1 trillion yuan[3][21] Government Debt and Payments - The government debt net payment is projected to be -202.1 billion yuan for March 9-13, indicating a negative net payment scenario[5][20] - The total amount of government debt due during this period is expected to be 4.975 trillion yuan, with a significant portion being rolled over[5][32] Interbank Market and Bill Rates - The 1-month bill rate increased by 8 basis points to 1.53%, while the 3-month and 6-month rates decreased to 1.38% and 1.17%, respectively[6][37] - Major banks have shifted to net selling in the bill market, with a net sell of 13.1 billion yuan during the first week of March[6][40] Pressure on Certificates of Deposit - The upcoming maturity of CDs is set to reach 992.4 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous week's 583 billion yuan, indicating increased maturity pressure[7][44] - The average issuance term for CDs has lengthened to 8.7 months, up from 7.0 months the previous week, suggesting banks are preparing for the quarter-end[7][48]