地缘冲突过后，大类资产或如何演绎？

Group 1 - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical conflicts on major asset classes, highlighting that short-term conflicts typically lead to a spike in volatility, with a dominant focus on "safe-haven trades" lasting about a month [6][9][10] - Historical examples illustrate that if military conflicts extend beyond two months, the supply gap in the oil market becomes persistent, leading to trend-like movements in safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries [9][10] - The report notes that prolonged conflicts can shift economic impacts from short-term supply shocks to broader global economic changes, as seen in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has led to significant adjustments in energy supply chains and pricing [10][12] Group 2 - The investment recommendations suggest that in the short term, the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict will primarily cause temporary fluctuations in the A-share market, benefiting sectors like oil and natural gas [17] - In the medium term, the core variable will be whether the conflict affects the Strait of Hormuz, leading to structural differentiation and increased volatility in the market, with beneficiaries including shipping, utilities, and military industries [17] - Long-term trends indicate that external geopolitical disturbances will not alter the A-share market's return to domestic economic fundamentals but will reinforce investment consensus on energy security, national defense, and core technology domestic substitution [17]