债市策略思考：对当前市场的三点思考

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the short-term impact of rising inflation expectations on the domestic bond market is relatively controllable, with a friendly macro environment for the bond market. The 10-year government bond yield is expected to have strong support above 1.85% and may attempt to move down towards the 1.70% level [1][9] Group 2 - The rising inflation expectations due to the escalating US-Iran conflict have led to a global increase in inflation expectations, causing adjustments in US and Japanese bonds. However, the impact on the domestic bond market is expected to be limited [2][16] - There is a significant difference in the inflation environment between domestic and international markets, with the domestic market having already partially priced in the inflation expectations. The moderate rise in inflation is not expected to hinder the easing monetary policy [3][18] - The uncertainty surrounding whether international oil prices can maintain high levels remains significant, and the transmission to domestic prices may experience a time lag [4][22] - Even if oil prices remain high, their impact on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be limited due to the relatively low weight of energy prices in the CPI [5][23] Group 3 - The macro environment is relatively friendly to the current bond market, with signs indicating that financial market investors are not fully prepared for the long-term evolution of the US-Iran conflict. The current market narrative is more focused on inflation rather than risk aversion [6][26] - The central bank's clear stance on maintaining liquidity has created a relatively abundant funding environment, which supports the bond market and prevents further declines [7][31] Group 4 - A comparison of the bond market in the first half of 2025 with the current stock market shows that there is a strong bullish expectation for bond yields to decline further, while the stock market is expected to experience a slow bull trend [8][33] - The bond market is expected to remain optimistic, with strong support for the 10-year government bond yield above 1.85%, and a potential attempt to move down towards 1.70% [9][34]