南华国债周报：盘点战争爆发后市场逻辑演进-20260307

Group 1: Futures and Bond Yield Data - The closing prices and weekly changes of various treasury bond futures are presented, including 10 - year (T2603.CFE, T2606.CFE), 5 - year (TF2603.CFE, TF2606.CFE), 2 - year (TS2603.CFE, TS2606.CFE), and 30 - year (TL2603.CFE, TL2606.CFE) with different price increases [10]. - The spreads between different futures contracts (cross - period and cross - variety) and their weekly changes are provided, such as T2603 - T2606, 2TS - T, etc [10]. - The closing prices and weekly changes of treasury and national development bond yields for different maturities (1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 30Y) are given, with some yields rising and others falling [10]. - The prices and weekly changes of bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates (DR001, DR007, DR014) and SHIBOR rates (SHIBOR1M, SHIBOR3M) are shown [10]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The reason for the bond market remaining strong at a high level this week is the decline of risk assets, the increase of macro - uncertainty, and the reduction of supply - side pressure under the stable fiscal strength in the government work report. The expectation of monetary policy easing was falsified on Friday [16]. - There are concerns about inflation in the medium - term due to the rising international oil price and domestic inflation repair. However, if the economic data in the first two months and the first quarter are weak, the bond market has support. In the short - term, the market may continue to fluctuate [16]. Group 3: Market Mainline Evolution - After the escalation of the geopolitical conflict, the market mainline has evolved from "emotional panic + risk - aversion" to "inflation concern + liquidity shock" and finally to "logical differentiation and desensitization" [17]. - In the first stage, the market panicked, with gold, oil, and the US dollar index rising, while A - shares were relatively strong [17]. - In the second stage, the market shifted to concerns about inflation and liquidity crisis, with most assets falling except for the US dollar and oil [18]. Group 4: Policy Comparison - The policy priorities, macro - policies, fiscal policies, and monetary policies in 2026 and 2025 are compared, along with economic indicators such as GDP growth rate, employment, CPI growth rate, etc [26]. - In 2026, there are new focuses on expanding domestic demand, developing new - quality productivity, and preventing risks in key areas [26]. Group 5: PMI Data - The PMI data shows certain trends, with values around 49 - 49.8, and there are fluctuations in different time periods [27].