2月非农大幅走弱：趋势与扰动并存

Employment Data - In February 2026, the U.S. non-farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, significantly below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 55,000, with the previous two months revised down by 69,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, exceeding the expected 4.3%[1] - The labor force participation rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 62.0%, below the expected 62.5%[1] Wage and Hours - Hourly wage growth remained steady at 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Average weekly hours worked remained unchanged at 34.3 hours[1] Sector Performance - Employment in the healthcare sector dropped by 135,000 to -19,000, while construction jobs fell by 59,000 to -11,000, indicating a negative correlation with the previous month's strong performance[5] - The decline in non-farm employment was attributed to statistical disturbances, strikes in the healthcare sector, and adverse weather conditions[2][3] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, U.S. Treasury yields initially fell before rising again, and the dollar index showed mixed movements[1] - Market pricing for cumulative interest rate cuts in 2026 increased by 6 basis points to 44 basis points, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.18%[1] Risk Factors - The report highlights risks associated with a potential acceleration in the weakening of the U.S. labor market and tighter financial conditions[4]