国信期货金融周报：美伊战火，股指回落债续升-20260308

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to decline, while bond prices are expected to rise. Stock index futures may stabilize due to domestic positive policies, with a suggestion to hold light long positions. For treasury bond futures, with sufficient liquidity and low market interest rates, and considering external turmoil, light long positions are also recommended [116][118] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices have fallen from high levels [9] - The CSI 500 index has also fallen from high levels, while treasury bond futures have continued to rebound [14] 2. Market Momentum Analysis - The trading volumes of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 have declined [19] - The trading volumes of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have decreased [22] - The margin trading balance exceeds 2.5 trillion yuan [26] - The turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have significantly dropped [30] - The sectors of the CSI 300 are relatively consistent [37] - The ALPHA values of the energy, materials, industrial, and telecommunications sectors of the CSI 300 are positive, while those of the optional, consumer, pharmaceutical, financial, and information sectors are negative [40] - In February, the number of listed companies increased by a net of 5 [45] 3. Fundamental Major Events - The implied repo rate (IRR) of the next - quarter 10 - year treasury bond futures has significantly declined, while that of the 5 - year treasury bond futures is stable [78][80] - The weighted inter - bank repo rate has slightly declined [86] - The short - term Shibor has slightly dropped [91] - In January, the CPI was 0.2%, showing a slight rebound, and the PPI growth rate reached - 1.4% [95] - In February, the PMI dropped to 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, indicating weak economic recovery [99] - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, showing a decline in consumption data [104] - Consumer confidence is on an upward trend [108] - In January, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 9%, and credit accelerated. M1 was 4.9%. The newly added RMB loans in January were 4.71 trillion yuan [111][112] 4. Outlook for the Future - The trading volume of the stock market is shrinking, with less than 2.2 trillion yuan. Due to the intensification of the US - Iran war, global capital markets have declined significantly. However, with the continuous introduction of positive policies during the Two Sessions in China, the stock market is expected to stabilize. It is recommended to hold light long positions in stock index futures. For treasury bond futures, with sufficient liquidity and low domestic market interest rates, and considering external turmoil, it is also recommended to hold light long positions [118]