Changjiang Securities·2026-03-08 01:26Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [11]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing internal rotation, with mid-term demand expected to continue rising. However, short-term price increases and negative feedback on demand may create volatility. If upstream supply issues ease, such as the resumption of lithium mica production by CATL, market confidence in demand may strengthen. Additionally, if industry production exceeds expectations or enters a peak season, price elasticity may increase, particularly for lithium carbonate, 6F, and iron lithium [3][30]. - In the mid-term, segments with stronger certainty and greater potential, such as separators, copper foil, and anodes, are expected to lead the market [3][30]. Separator Segment - The separator industry is entering a period of oversupply, with prices declining significantly, leading to reduced profitability for companies. The capacity utilization rate for wet-process separators is expected to recover positively due to sustained lithium battery demand [6][32]. - The penetration rate of wet-process separators is projected to increase, with expectations of a significant demand boost from the transition to 5μm products. This may lead to a tightening supply-demand balance and potential price surges in the future [6][42][50]. Copper Foil Segment - The copper foil industry is facing challenges due to supply-demand mismatches and technological iterations. However, the industry is at a cost support stage, with production expansion stagnating and profitability expected to recover as demand strengthens [8][58]. - The market for high-value low-profile (HVLP) copper foil is anticipated to grow rapidly, driven by high-frequency and high-speed requirements in AI servers, leading to a potential upgrade cycle [8][58]. Anode Segment - The anode segment is currently experiencing low profitability, with weak expansion intentions across the industry. Capacity utilization rates are expected to improve gradually, with potential catalysts needed for price increases, such as rising upstream petroleum coke prices or stricter energy consumption policies [9][30].