成本支撑及减产影响，合成胶表现更强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year, with production increasing by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons and demand growing by 1.7% to 15.6 million tons. The prices are likely to remain firm. [35] - The cost support for rubber prices is obvious in the short - term, and the trading atmosphere in the market is gradually warming up after the holiday. However, there are concerns about the weak export market of tires due to unstable trade environment. [83] - The price of butadiene, the upstream raw material of synthetic rubber, is rising, and the cost support for synthetic rubber is strong. The synthetic rubber may continue to outperform natural rubber in the near future. It is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber when there is support during the correction. [83] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The report presents the weekly - line trends of the main contracts of Shanghai rubber RU, NR, and synthetic rubber, as well as the spot price trends of whole - milk RU, Thai raw material acquisition prices, the spread trends between RU - NR and RU - BR, and the basis of synthetic rubber BR [6][9][11] 3.2 Rubber Fundamentals - Supply - side: The total planting area of ANRPC natural rubber has been decreasing since 2017. In 2026, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons, with Thailand's production remaining stable and India's production continuing to decline. In January 2026, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports decreased by 1.8% year - on - year. In 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 16.7% year - on - year, and Thailand's exports to China increased by 24% year - on - year. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao is increasing. [29][35][38] - Demand - side: In 2025, China's rubber tire production increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 3.6% year - on - year. In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in production year - on - year and a decrease in sales year - on - year. The export of automobiles continued to grow. The sales of heavy - duty trucks in January 2026 increased by 38.6% year - on - year. [49][52][60] - Production and inventory of synthetic rubber: In 2025, China's synthetic rubber production decreased by 20.3% year - on - year. [77] 3.3 Market Outlook - The overseas natural rubber production areas are in the seasonal supply off - season, and the cost support for rubber prices is obvious. The trading atmosphere in the market is gradually warming up after the holiday, but there are concerns about the weak tire export market. The price of butadiene, the upstream raw material of synthetic rubber, is rising, and the cost support for synthetic rubber is strong. The synthetic rubber may continue to outperform natural rubber in the near future, and it is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber when there is support during the correction. [83]