天然气周报：海峡通行风险下降，原油内外价差可能修复-20260308

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic crude oil futures prices may experience high - level oscillatory adjustments in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or focus on intraday short - term trading [52] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - China INE Crude Oil Futures Main Contract Price Trend: Data source is Boyiyun and Guoxin Futures [10][12] - US WTI Crude Oil Futures Continuous Contract Price Trend: Data source is Boyiyun and Guoxin Futures [13][15] 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Analysis - China's Crude Oil Monthly Output: In December, China's above - scale industrial crude oil output was 17.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%, with a daily output of 574,000 tons. From January to December, the output was 216.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Crude oil processing speeded up. Data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [19][20] - China's Crude Oil Monthly Import Volume: In December 2025, China's crude oil import volume was 55.973 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17%. From January to December, the cumulative import volume was 577.726 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [21][22] - China's Refinery Operating Rate and Monthly Crude Oil Processing Volume: In December, China's above - scale industrial crude oil processing volume was 62.46 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and the growth rate was 1.1 percentage points faster than that in November, with a daily processing volume of 2.015 million tons. From January to December, the processing volume was 737.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. Data source is Zhuochuang Information and Guoxin Futures [24][26] - INE Crude Oil Registered Warehouse Receipt Inventory and Downstream Refinery Product Inventory: Data source is INE and Guoxin Futures [28][29] - US Crude Oil Production and Downstream Refinery Operating Rate: As of the week ending January 30, the US daily crude oil production was 13.215 million barrels, 481,000 barrels less than the previous week and 263,000 barrels less than the same period last year. The four - week average daily production as of January 30 was 13.599 million barrels, 1.3% higher than the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, the average daily production has been 13.606 million barrels, 1.3% higher than the same period last year. Data source is Zhuochuang Information and Guoxin Futures [31][33] - US Crude Oil Rig Count: As of the week ending February 20, the number of active oil - drilling wells in the US was 409, the same as the previous week and 79 less than the same period last year. Data source is Zhuochuang Information and Guoxin Futures [34][36] - US Crude Oil Inventory: As of the week ending February 27, 2026, the total US crude oil inventory including reserves was 854.72 million barrels, an increase of 3.475 million barrels from the previous week; the commercial crude oil inventory was 439.279 million barrels, an increase of 3.475 million barrels; the gasoline inventory was 253.13 million barrels, a decrease of 1.704 million barrels; the distillate inventory was 120.78 million barrels, an increase of 429,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 26.463 million barrels, an increase of 1.564 million barrels. The US oil reserve remained stable at 415.441 million barrels. Data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [38][40] - US Crude Oil Inventory Change (EIA): Data source is WIND and Guoxin Futures [41][43] - Saudi Crude Oil Production: Data source is Zhuochuang Information and Guoxin Futures [44][46] - OPEC Crude Oil Production: Data source is Zhuochuang Information and Guoxin Futures [47][48] 3.3 Market Outlook - Crude Oil Market Outlook: The US crude oil and distillate inventories increased, while the gasoline inventory decreased last week. As of the week ending February 27, 2026, the total US crude oil inventory including reserves was 854.72 million barrels, an increase of 3.475 million barrels from the previous week; the commercial crude oil inventory was 439.279 million barrels, an increase of 3.475 million barrels; the gasoline inventory was 253.13 million barrels, a decrease of 1.704 million barrels; the distillate inventory was 120.78 million barrels, an increase of 429,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 26.463 million barrels, an increase of 1.564 million barrels. The US oil reserve remained stable at 415.441 million barrels. International oil prices have been rising due to armed conflicts in the Persian Gulf. On March 5, the Iranian military clarified that Iran did not block the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, Iran may mainly prevent US and Israeli - related vessels from passing. The risk of supply interruption in Asia has slightly eased. Saudi Arabia is also considering diverting its crude oil exports around the Strait of Hormuz. Data source is Zhuochuang Information and Guoxin Futures [50][51]