债券研究周报：10年国开利差为何下不去？-20260308

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has shown low - volatility oscillations this week. Over the past two months, the bond market has recovered to some extent, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropping from 1.90% on January 7th to 1.78% on March 6th [6][12]. - The 10 - year tax spread has not compressed despite the decline in interest rates. As of March 6th, the spread was 17.85bp, at the 97.2% high - percentile point since 2024. The weak performance of China Development Bank bonds may be related to the change in the capital flow of the public - offering funds' liability side and their "over - defensive" mindset [6][12]. - The tax spreads of 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year bonds have improved. If the optimistic sentiment in the bond market continues, there is a large compression space for the 10 - year China Development Bank bond tax spread [6][13]. - Banks are increasing the trading volume of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds. The profit - taking power of banks cannot be ignored [6][13]. - Maintain the previous view that the bond market can be more optimistic. If there is a need to extend the duration, the active bonds of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and 30 - year Treasury bonds are still good choices [7][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market showed low - volatility oscillations this week. In the past two months, it has recovered, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined from 1.90% on January 7th to 1.78% on March 6th [6][12]. - The 10 - year tax spread did not compress. As of March 6th, it was at a high - percentile point. The weak performance of China Development Bank bonds may be due to the capital flow change of public - offering funds' liability side and their defensive mindset. From the beginning of the year to March 6th, public - offering funds only net - bought 238 billion yuan of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds in the secondary market, while the net - buying of other 3 - 5 - year bonds (mainly Tier 2 and perpetual bonds) reached 2075 billion yuan. Also, the pure - bond funds are in a defensive state [6][12]. 3.2 Outlook on Future Market Trends - The tax spreads of 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year bonds have improved. From February 28th to March 6th, their quantiles have decreased. The 10 - year China Development Bank bond spread quantile is still at a high level, and if the market sentiment improves, there is a large compression space [6][13]. - Banks are increasing the trading volume of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds. From March 2nd to March 6th, securities firms, funds, and other institutions have increased their allocations, and large - scale banks' net - selling is more significant. The profit - taking power of banks cannot be ignored [6][13]. - Maintain the view that the bond market can be more optimistic. For duration extension, the active bonds of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and 30 - year Treasury bonds are good choices [7][13].