2月外汇储备数据传递的信号：外储环比回升，汇率何去何从？

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - In February 2026, China's official foreign exchange reserves reached $34,278.07 billion, an increase of $28.729 billion month-on-month[1] - The positive contribution to reserves was driven by asset prices, with a calculated impact of approximately $30.672 billion from bond yield fluctuations[3] - The RMB appreciated by 1.33% against the USD in February, closing at 6.86, while the CFETS RMB index rose by 1.64%[3] Group 2: Exchange Rate Outlook - The rapid appreciation of the RMB is nearing its end, transitioning to a phase of strong fluctuations with a slower appreciation rate[4] - The central bank's cancellation of the 20% risk reserve for forward foreign exchange sales indicates a clear policy signal to manage the pace of RMB appreciation[4] - The expected central parity of the RMB against the USD is around 6.9, with a potential peak of 6.8 in the first half of the year, followed by a gradual decline below 7[2][4] Group 3: Market Conditions - Seasonal peaks in currency settlement may have weakened, reducing the upward pressure on the RMB from pre- and post-Spring Festival export settlements[4] - The USD index is expected to remain strong in the short term due to heightened market risk aversion amid geopolitical tensions[4]